Initial Claims Fall 33K, Reach Lowest Levels Since January

Initial Claims declined 33K to 521K for the week ending Oct. 03. This was much better than the consensus estimate of 540K.  This was the lowest reading since early Janurary 2009.  It is unclear whether or not this is the start of a trend of significant improvement in claims or just a seasonal quirk  Therefore, it will be important to continue monitoring the 4wk moving average and the coming weeks’ releases.  The 4wk moving average declined to 539,750 from 548,750 on the release, this is also the lowest level since January.  Despite second derivative improvements these numbers still indicate further deterioration to upcoming payroll numbers, and the unemployment rate, which is very likely to exceed 10% in the coming months.

**I apologize for my intermittent updates this week; I am presently involved with another project taking a considerable amount of my time.