The 2Q09 advanced GDP estimate came in at an annual rate of -1.0%, or better than analysts most recent estimates. This reading is much improved compared to last quarter’s -6.5% reading. However, looking behind the headline, a big jump in government expenditures offset what was a substantial decline in personal consumption, which contributed -0.9% to […]
Archive:
July 2009
Initial Claims rose 25K to 584K, as the index continues to adjust for erroneous seasonal adjustment factors stemming from early auto plant closures. The good news these askew effects have by now likely all been washed out, so we should once again be able to rely on claims as a reliable indicator. On that note, […]
Oil prices are likely to continue facing downward pressure as the year progresses, stemming from an oversupply amid weak demand. The downward pressure placed on oil prices will probably be exacerbated later this year due to seasonal factors, which include the end of the summer driving season. First off, I would like to point out […]
June’s Durable goods orders were down 2.5%, the biggest drop in 5 months, on the back of weak demand for transportation and communication equipment. The Bloomberg consensus forecast stood at -0.6%. Making matters worse, May’s number was revised down to 1.3% from 1.8%. There was some good news in the details at least; Durable good […]
As a quick exercise I wanted to put into perspective the magnitude of California’s requirement for state employees to take three days of furlough a month. The average state employee in California earns US$65,000 per year. This program will impact roughly 210,000 of the states 359,000 employees. This means over the course of one year […]
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index fell to 46.6 in July from 49.3. The Present Condition Index fell to 23.4 from an initial reading of 25.0, while the Expectations Index fell to 62.0 compared to an initial reading of 65.5. Weakness in the labor market was likely the primary driver behind these declines. This is […]
The S&P Case Shiller Index rose 0.5% in May, the index’s first monthly gain in three years. But, the index is still down by 17.1% on a year over year basis. 14 of the 20 cities in the index experienced gains with Cleveland leading the pack with an increment of 4.1%, followed by Dallas with […]
I noticed an unusual rally in DryShips (DRYS) today, which closed up an astonishing 13.6%. At first I attributed this advance to positive sentiment stemming from better than anticipated new home sales, coupled with speculation over the company’s earnings data and a higher BDI, but after looking at the performance of the rest of the […]
New Home Sales rose by 11.0% in June, realizing an annual rate of sales of 384,000 units versus last month’s revised pace of 346,000. This was the index’s largest gain in eight years. New home sales increased in every region, excluding the south. The supply of new homes in June fell to 8.8 from 10.2 […]
We have a rather tumultuous week in terms of economic data, which will focus on the US housing sector, consumer confidence, durable goods, and US GDP. The week kicks off Monday morning with the US Census Bureau reporting June’s new home sales. Recent housing data has been indicative of a bottom for the sector, so […]