The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dipped for the fist time in five months to 66, compared to a market consensus of 65 for July. At the same time the July expectations index increased to 63.2 versus July’s preliminary reading of 60.9. The drivers behind this month’s declines were derived from weakness in the […]
Archive:
July 2009
US existing home sales came in above the market consensus, rising 3.6% at an annualized rate of 4.89mn. Single family home sales increased by 2.4%, while condo/coop sales increased 14.0%. The months supply of home also improved moving to 9.4 months, compared to 9.8 in May. The median home price rose 4.1%, but still remains […]
As I anticipated, and explained in my US Week Ahead, initial claims experienced a significant uptick this morning, which will likely be continued next week. In reality, this increment was probably due to a correction in what has been overly optimistic data stemming from erroneous seasonal adjustment factors. Fed Chairman Bernanke in his recent testimony […]
The index of leading indicators was up in June by 0.7%, or slightly above the market consensus of 0.5%. At the same time May’s number was revised up to 1.3% from 1.2%. This is the third consecutive month of gains for the index. In the release the Conference Board was quoted as saying, “The behavior […]
After last week’s barrage of economic data, this week is relatively light. The few exceptions will be Monday’s leading indicator release, Thursday’s jobless claims and existing home sales data, and Friday’s consumer sentiment report. This week’s claims data will likely take on added importance as the market tries to decipher the impact early auto plant […]
June housing starts came in this morning well above expectations increasing 3.6%, totaling 582K (SAAR) units. Economists has been anticipating 530K. This is the index’s second consecutive month of gains, which could indicate some stabilization for the sector. There were also some positive revisions to April’s and May’s starts numbers. The increase was due to […]
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -7.5 this month compared to -2.2, last month. Looking deeper into the details, the future general activity index remained positive, but declined to 51.9 from 60.1 last month. Further deterioration to this component could indicate continued weakness in in the general business activity index through the beginning of […]
As I mentioned was a likely scenario in my US Economic Week Ahead, jobless claims fell 47K to 522K. As with last week, early auto company layoffs have likely distorted the index due to misaligned seasonal adjustments. I do believe we should continue to see an improvement in jobless claims, but the levels seen over […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s General Business Conditions Index moved up to -0.6 from -9.4 in June. Both the new orders and shipment indices came in above 0 this month, indicating growth, at 5.9 and 11.0, respectively. But, the employment index remained depressed with a reading of -20.8, almost unchanged from the prior month. It […]
Retail sales jumped 0.9% last month on the back of higher gasoline prices and increased automobile purchases. Automobile sales were mostly catalyzed by bigger incentives to clear inventories. But, factoring out these components retail sales would have actually declined for the 4th consecutive month. Therefore, despite what appears to be a significant increment on the […]