Despite Friday’s better than anticipated confidence number it’s unlikely the index can show sustained gains until initial jobless claims move well below current levels. As the attached chart highlights, in 2009, as claims began to fall, confidence began to rise off of crisis lows. However, since the start of 2010 this trend came to an […]
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Consumer News
Unusual volatility in the sale of building materials has exaggerated retail sales over the past three months. While this doesn’t change the prevailing trend, sales in both April and March would have appeared far less optimistic than reported. Building material sales climbed 8.0% in both March and April-a pace not seen since March 2004-plummting -9.3% […]
Nearly 28% of all income received in the U.S. comes in one form or another from the U.S. government. As of April 2010, government wages combined with government transfer payments total 27.8% of total income in the US. Breaking it down further, government wages plus transfers equals nearly 67% of total private sector wages. These […]
Food stamp usage has climbed to new highs in the U.S. with over 40mn subscribers–roughly 15% of the total population–as of this morning’s release for March. The rise in volumes coincided with an explosion in costs for the program to $5.4bn/month from $3.6bn/month at the start of 2009. Surging food stamp use or what is referred […]
Credit card delinquencies declined in April for the fourth straight month, indicating that consumers are gaining traction. Diminishing delinquency and default rates could eventually lead lenders to reduce strict lending standards; following significant tightening subsequent to the subprime crisis. On this note, more lenient lending standards could have wider implications for the U.S. economy, which […]
On the surface the investors should be celebrating April’s higher than estimated retail sales growth, but a look behind the curtain reveals a slightly different picture. The retail sales control group, which the government uses to calculate GDP, actually fell -0.2% during the month, its first decline since July 2009 (see chart). The control group […]
On the surface, a recovery in retail sales is not only a harbinger for stronger economic growth, but could prove to be the missing link for job creation (see chart). Climbing out of the deepest recession since the Great Depression, consumption growth has been surprisingly tepid, at least partially due to companies’ lack of confidence […]
December’s Industrial Production rose +0.6%, inline with a Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.6%. November’s release was revised to +0.8% to +0.6%. December’s reading was almost entirely due to a 5.9% jump in utilities stemming from extremely cold weather around the country. The index’s manufacturing component actually fell -0.1% during the month, while mining output rose […]
December’s Retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.3%, after a revised +1.8% increment in November (previously +1.3%). The latest Bloomberg consensus forecast was for a rise of +0.5% with forecasts ranging from 0.0% to +1.2%. The decline was broad based and included an unexpected -0.8% change in motor vehicle sales. This data includes online sales. Ex-autos retail […]
Consumer Credit outstanding dived by a record -$17.5bn in November, compared to a revised -$4.2bn decrease in October. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was anticipating a more moderate -$5.0bn decline. Individual estimates ranged from -$10.0 bn to a high of -$2.0bn. Revolving credit credit card balances) fell by -$13.7bn in November compared to a decline of […]