As I mentioned in my week ahead, retail sales would likely set the pace for the week, and we received the data this morning. Retail sales rose +1.4% in October, compared to a revised -2.3% change in September (originally -1.5%). This was well above the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.9%,however, this good news was […]
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The preliminary November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was reported at 66.0 versus a 70.6 reading in October, and 73.5 in September–well below expectations. As I warned in my economist first look, this index could face some downside risk as survey participants would have been exposed to a worse than anticipated employment report last […]
Personal Income showed no change for September after a revised increment +0.1% in August, this was inline with the consensus forecast. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) declined -0.5% in September, versus a revised increment of +1.4% in August. The decline in consumption is the continued aftereffects caused by the expiration of the US government’s ‘Cash for […]
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 47.7 in October from a revised figure of 53.4. This was well below the consensus forecast of 53.1, and the lwoest reading in four months. The October Present Situation index came in at 20.7 compared to 23.0 in September, while the October Expectations index finished at 65.7 […]
Retail sales fell -1.5% in September, versus a revised +2.2% (previously +2.7) increment in August. Excluding autos sales rose +0.5% in September, compared to a revised +1.0% (previously +1.1%) change in August . Despite a still worsening employment situation, over the last several months retail sales (ex-autos) have demonstrated an upward trend, albeit at a […]
Personal income rose 0.2% in August, after rising 0.2% in July. Personal consumption expenditures climbed 1.3%, versus a 0.3% increment in July. Most of August’s strength was due to increased durable goods purchases (+5.3) stemming from the residual effect from the US government’s Cash for Clunkers program. Nevertheless, the consumption of services reached an 11 […]
September’s consumer confidence fell to 53.1, compared to a consensus forecast of 57.0, and a previous reading of 54.1. According to the report “Consumer Confidence, which had improved in August, retreated slightly in September. The Present Situation Index decreased, as consumers viewed both current business conditions and the labor market less favorably than last month. […]
July’s business inventories fell -1.0% to US$1.33bn, versus a Bloomberg consensus forecast of -0.9%. On a year over year basis the index has fallen -11.8%. June’s release was revised down to -1.4% from -1.1%. In July the inventory to sales ratio decline to 1.36, and is its lowest level since October 2008. It is widely […]
August’s Retail Sales rose 2.7%, compared to a consensus forecast of +2.0% and a previous reading in July of -0.1%. The ex-autos component of retail sales came in at 1.1%, versus a consensus forecast of +0.4% and a previous reading of -0.6% in July. Therefore, what is typically a bump in sales due to better […]
September’s preliminary consumer sentiment release showed a rise to 70.2, compared to the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 67.5 and a previous reading of 65.7. The less bad is good philosophy seemed to help this month’s preliminary sentiment index, as consumer’s hope declining job losses, what appears to a bottom in the housing market, and improvements […]