On the surface the investors should be celebrating April’s higher than estimated retail sales growth, but a look behind the curtain reveals a slightly different picture. The retail sales control group, which the government uses to calculate GDP, actually fell -0.2% during the month, its first decline since July 2009 (see chart). The control group […]
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Data Release
Trade, the life blood of the global economy, has begun rebounding nicely since the trough of the global economic crisis. But, January’s US trade data unexpectedly displayed a decline in both exports–the first decline in nine months–and imports, leading to a smaller US trade deficit, but also implying a potential slowdown in global trade. As […]
Non-farm payrolls fell -36K, handily beating the latest consensus forecast of -68K. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%. The market can expect some volatility from government census worker hirings over the months ahead. The effect should be positive for the next couple months, but eventually turn negative as these workers are let go. One […]
The February’s manufacturing ISM slipped to 56.5, versus a 58.4 a month prior. Disappointing the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast of 58.0. Any level over 50 signifies expansion in the sector. I continue to believe that as inventory restocking begins to slow the ISM manufacturing index will suffer as 2010 progresses. That is without a new […]
This morning’s disappointing new home sales release for January reiterates the trend I outlined in my piece published on Real Money this morning titled ‘Housing Recovery Starts to Buckle’. I continue to believe housing will face a number of hurdles this year, and is unlikely to enjoy anything more than a modest, though bumpy, recovery.
What had been an improving trend in initial jobless claims has hit a roadblock with claims rising this morning to by 22K to 496K . Recent volatility can be attributed to everything from weather to a backlog of claims in California, but in the end still points to further deterioration for the monthly employment report. […]
January’s record low new home sales data has made it fairly obvious the government’s extended/expanded home buyer tax credit has yet to have a significant impact on the sector. The pace of new home sales plummeted by 11.2% to a level of 309K in January. The months supply of new homes rose sharply reaching 9.1 […]
This morning the Case-Shiller HPI dropped by -1.1% in Q4 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. The index was down -2.51% on an annual basis. This compares to a 3.31% quarterly rise in the third quarter. I continue to believe that housing prices will come under continued pressure throughout 2010 after the expiration of the government’s […]
January’s non-farm payrolls fell by -20K, compared to a Bloomberg consensus forecast of an increase of +15K. December’s release was revised down to -150K from -85K, while November’s number was revised up to +64K from its original release of +4K. January’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9.7%, from 10.0%–driven by a shrinking workforce. Keep in […]
Janurary’s non-manufacturing ISM release rose modestly to 50.5 versus 49.8 in December. This was just below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 51.0. The employment index rose to 44.6 from 43.6, while the prices paid index climbed to 61.2 from 59.6. The new orders index took a bit of a bounce in January moving to 54.7 […]