January’s Manufacturing ISM Index rose to 58.4, now coming in above 50 for six consecutive months. The this reading was much better than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 55.5 with individual estimates from 53.5 to 58.0. Looking at the ISM’s sub-indices; prices paid rose to 70.0 in January from 61.5 in December; the employment index […]
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Data Release
As anticipated the FOMC reaffirmed that it “will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions…are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” But, a hawkish sign came in the form of a dissenting […]
New Homes sales plummeted to a pace of 342K units in December, falling 7.6% from a revised 370K in November (originally 355K). The current Bloomberg consensus forecast was for a pace of 368K. The supply of new homes climbed during the month to 8.1 months versus 7.6 in November. The median new home price rose […]
Every month the Philadelphia Fed releases the State Coincident Indexes measuring the current economic activity for each of the 50 states. This morning’s release (covering December) showed the diffusion index — a compilation of each individual state’s performance drop to -74 after peaking at -22 in November. (Levels below 0 reflect contracting conditions.) The Philly […]
December’s Industrial Production rose +0.6%, inline with a Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.6%. November’s release was revised to +0.8% to +0.6%. December’s reading was almost entirely due to a 5.9% jump in utilities stemming from extremely cold weather around the country. The index’s manufacturing component actually fell -0.1% during the month, while mining output rose […]
December’s Retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.3%, after a revised +1.8% increment in November (previously +1.3%). The latest Bloomberg consensus forecast was for a rise of +0.5% with forecasts ranging from 0.0% to +1.2%. The decline was broad based and included an unexpected -0.8% change in motor vehicle sales. This data includes online sales. Ex-autos retail […]
Consumer Credit outstanding dived by a record -$17.5bn in November, compared to a revised -$4.2bn decrease in October. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was anticipating a more moderate -$5.0bn decline. Individual estimates ranged from -$10.0 bn to a high of -$2.0bn. Revolving credit credit card balances) fell by -$13.7bn in November compared to a decline of […]
December non-farm payrolls fell 85k, compared to a consensus call of no change. November payrolls were revised to +4k from -11k this was the first increase in payrolls since December 2007. December’s unemployment rate remained at 10.0%, in-line with consensus. Hourly earnings in December rose +0.2%, in-line with consensus. Manufacturing payrolls declined -27k, falling for […]
The December non-manufacturing ISM came in at 50.1 versus 48.7, a month prior. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was 50.5 with estimates ranging from 48.0 to 52.1. The all important employment index finished December at 44.0 versus 41.6 in November. The prices paid index remained well above 50 coming in at 58.7 from 57.8. The standalone […]
The ADP Employment Report indicated a decline of 84K in private sector payrolls in December , compared to a revised drop of 145K a month prior November. This is the lowest level of declines since March 2008. It is unlikely this release will impact Friday’s forecast for no change in non-farm payrolls. Over the past […]