The manufacturing ISM rose to 55.9 from 53.6 in November. Looking at the components the Prices Paid Index rose to 61.5 in December from 55.0, while New Orders jumped to 65.5 from 60.3 in November. But, the big story may be in the Employment Index, which climbed to 52.0 in December from 50.8. This result […]
Archive:
Data Release
The Chicago PMI’s better than anticipated reading of 60.0 in December from 56.1 a month prior continues to indicate improving business conditions throughout the Chicago area–and a potentially positive forward looking indicator toward December’s ISM. All of the indicator’s components, excluding inventories, have moved above the break-even point of 50. The most noteworthy jump was […]
November’s existing home sales rose 7.4% to 6.54 million units, after a marginal downward revision to 6.09 million units in October from 6.10. This increment was above market expectations, and likely driven primarily by what would have been the expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit at the end of the November. The months’ […]
This morning’s unexpected downward revision of third quarter GDP to 2.2% from 2.8% was unexpected, but should be made up for by growth around 4.5% in the current quarter. Looking at this morning’s data, several components were revised between the preliminary and final GDP estimate leading to a decline of -$17.3 billion. The revisions were […]
Initial jobless claims came in unchanged this morning at -505K, while its overall downward trend continues to indicate that fewer people are losing their jobs. This should help decelerate the climb in the unemployment rate and decline in payrolls, until they eventually peak some time during the first half of 2010. It is very likely […]
October’s Housing Starts disappointed the market finishing at an annual rate of 529,000 (-10.6%), while September’s release was revised up to 592K from 590K. Permit’s in October declined -4.0%, to 552K. Single-family starts fell -6.8%, while multi-family homes plummeted by -34.6%. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was for starts at 600K, with forecasts ranging from 570K […]
Industrial Production rose +0.1% in October, versus a Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.4%.At the same time September’s reading was revised up from +0.6% to +0.7%. As I warned in my US Economics Week Ahead, manufacturing production lost -0.1% during the month while utility output more than offset this decline by climbing 1.6%, on what was […]
As I mentioned in my week ahead, retail sales would likely set the pace for the week, and we received the data this morning. Retail sales rose +1.4% in October, compared to a revised -2.3% change in September (originally -1.5%). This was well above the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.9%,however, this good news was […]
The preliminary November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was reported at 66.0 versus a 70.6 reading in October, and 73.5 in September–well below expectations. As I warned in my economist first look, this index could face some downside risk as survey participants would have been exposed to a worse than anticipated employment report last […]
September’s trade deficit widened more than anticipated to -US$36.5B from a revised -US$30.8bn in August (originally -US$30.7bn). Exports rose by +2.9% to US$132.0B, while imports were up a more significant +5.8% to US$168.4B–with auto imports rising a substantial US$1.4bn. It is not at all unusual for the trade deficit to widen during the early stages […]