Personal Income showed no change for September after a revised increment +0.1% in August, this was inline with the consensus forecast. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) declined -0.5% in September, versus a revised increment of +1.4% in August. The decline in consumption is the continued aftereffects caused by the expiration of the US government’s ‘Cash for […]
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Labor Market
September’s CPI rose +0.2%, compared to a +0.4% increment a month prior. Core CPI increased +0.2%. This was generally in-line with the Bloomberg consensus forecast. Food prices fell -0.1% during the month while energy prices rose +0.6%. These modest gains continue to indicate that some deflationary risk remains on the table, and inflation should not […]
Initial Claims declined 33K to 521K for the week ending Oct. 03. This was much better than the consensus estimate of 540K. This was the lowest reading since early Janurary 2009. It is unclear whether or not this is the start of a trend of significant improvement in claims or just a seasonal quirk Therefore, […]
In September non-farm payrolls declined 263k, versus a consensus forecast of -175k, and a revised decline in August of -201K. Payrolls have now declined for 21 consecutive months. Over the last 21 months 7.2mn people have lost their jobs. September’s unemployment rate rose to 9.8% from 9.7%, this was inline with expectations, but the highest […]
August housing starts rose 1.5% to 0.598mn, compared to a consensus estimate of 0.600mn. Looking further into the details, single-family starts are down -3.0%, while multi-unit homes grew by +25.5%.In August permits rose by 2.7%, to 579K. July’s permits were revised to 564K from 560K. Going forward there could be some downside risks to this […]
Payrolls in the US fell by -216K in August compared to a revised decline of -276K in July, and a consensus forecast of -200K. The unemployment rate for the month increased to 9.7% versus 9.4% a month prior, and a consensus forecast of 9.5%. The decline in payrolls continue to moderate, but an increase in […]
Initial claims this week fell by 4K this week declining to 570, this was above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 562K. But, the 4wk moving average reached its highest level in 7wks at 571.25K. Last week’s number was revised to 570K from 574K. Continuing claims rose 92K reaching 6.23mn. Initial claims should marginally improve over […]
Productivity was revised up slightly for 2Q09 to +6.6% from +6.4%, while unit labor costs were revised down to -5.9% from -5.8%. Additionally, the ADP employment survey indicated a loss of -298K jobs, compared to -360K last month. This was worse than analyst’s estimates. Nevertheless, the details behind the ADP report, like the rest of […]
I was recently passed an article published in USA Today, which discussed some of the challenges states are facing due to dwindling state coffers. Several states, including even New York, have decided to close down correctional facilities and reduce staff to ward off the budget shortfalls. My first thought was that the prisoners impacted would […]
US 2Q09 GDP remained unchanged from the advance reading of -1.0%, a month earlier. The consensus estimate for the revision was -1.5%. Despite what was no change in the headline number, there were revisions to the data behind it with exports and consumption being revised up, while inventories and non-residential spending were revised down. […]