Initial jobless claims rose this morning by 15K to 576K compared to last week’s number revised number of 561K, and a consensus forecast of 550K. This is the second consecutive week claims have unexpectedly risen. The 4wk moving average moved up by 4,250 to 570K. Despite the rise over the past two weeks, claims should […]
Archive:
Labor Market
Initial jobless claims rose to 4K this week to 558K, compared to a previous revised reading of 554K and a Bloomberg consensus forecast of 543K. This number has been trending to lower, which indicates a slowing improvement for the US labor market. But, claims still remains far from healthy levels, and still indicates significant deterioration […]
Payrolls in the US fell by -247,000 in July, with the unemployment rate moving to 9.4% from 9.5%. This compares to last month’s revised change of -443K, and a consensus forecast of -300K. This number exceeds both the streets and my own expectations. The drop in the unemployment rate was caused by a reported decrease […]
Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, fell 38K to 550K, compared to a street consensus of 575K. The week prior’s number was revised up to 588K from 584K. This points to continued improvement in the labor market from what. however, is a rather dismal base. Claims at these levels still point toward […]
July’s ADP National Employment Report showed a change in payrolls of -350K, compared to a revised drop of -463K in June. The latest Bloomberg consensus estimate was -350K. The job market continues to improve, despite remaining at dismal levels. Initial market reaction was negative to the report with interest rates trading up and equities futures […]
Initial Claims rose 25K to 584K, as the index continues to adjust for erroneous seasonal adjustment factors stemming from early auto plant closures. The good news these askew effects have by now likely all been washed out, so we should once again be able to rely on claims as a reliable indicator. On that note, […]
As I anticipated, and explained in my US Week Ahead, initial claims experienced a significant uptick this morning, which will likely be continued next week. In reality, this increment was probably due to a correction in what has been overly optimistic data stemming from erroneous seasonal adjustment factors. Fed Chairman Bernanke in his recent testimony […]
As I mentioned was a likely scenario in my US Economic Week Ahead, jobless claims fell 47K to 522K. As with last week, early auto company layoffs have likely distorted the index due to misaligned seasonal adjustments. I do believe we should continue to see an improvement in jobless claims, but the levels seen over […]
Initial Claims finished came in this morning at 565K versus the previous week’s reading of 614K and a consensus forecast of 610K. I believe the improvement may have been exaggerated by inaccurate seasonal adjustment factors stemming from the timing of automotive and other manufacturing lay-offs, which could be repeated next week. Although, I do believe […]
June’s ADP release came in at -473,000, implying there could be some downward pressure placed on forecasts for tomorrow’s payroll data. Currently, the market is forecasting a -350,000 change in payrolls; I believe we could see this number actually come in around -440,000, which is still much better than the six month average, but below […]