The February’s manufacturing ISM slipped to 56.5, versus a 58.4 a month prior. Disappointing the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast of 58.0. Any level over 50 signifies expansion in the sector. I continue to believe that as inventory restocking begins to slow the ISM manufacturing index will suffer as 2010 progresses. That is without a new […]
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Labor Market
Here is an interesting read regarding job losses due to the space shuttle’s retirement: http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100226/NEWS0204/2260321/23-000-now-expected-to-lose-jobs-after-shuttle-retirement The unemployment rate in Florida is already running well above the national average: Source: Bloomberg
What had been an improving trend in initial jobless claims has hit a roadblock with claims rising this morning to by 22K to 496K . Recent volatility can be attributed to everything from weather to a backlog of claims in California, but in the end still points to further deterioration for the monthly employment report. […]
January’s non-farm payrolls fell by -20K, compared to a Bloomberg consensus forecast of an increase of +15K. December’s release was revised down to -150K from -85K, while November’s number was revised up to +64K from its original release of +4K. January’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9.7%, from 10.0%–driven by a shrinking workforce. Keep in […]
December non-farm payrolls fell 85k, compared to a consensus call of no change. November payrolls were revised to +4k from -11k this was the first increase in payrolls since December 2007. December’s unemployment rate remained at 10.0%, in-line with consensus. Hourly earnings in December rose +0.2%, in-line with consensus. Manufacturing payrolls declined -27k, falling for […]
The December non-manufacturing ISM came in at 50.1 versus 48.7, a month prior. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was 50.5 with estimates ranging from 48.0 to 52.1. The all important employment index finished December at 44.0 versus 41.6 in November. The prices paid index remained well above 50 coming in at 58.7 from 57.8. The standalone […]
The ADP Employment Report indicated a decline of 84K in private sector payrolls in December , compared to a revised drop of 145K a month prior November. This is the lowest level of declines since March 2008. It is unlikely this release will impact Friday’s forecast for no change in non-farm payrolls. Over the past […]
Initial jobless claims came in unchanged this morning at -505K, while its overall downward trend continues to indicate that fewer people are losing their jobs. This should help decelerate the climb in the unemployment rate and decline in payrolls, until they eventually peak some time during the first half of 2010. It is very likely […]
The inevitable has occurred; October’s unemployment rate rose to 10.2%–a 26 year high–, while nonfarm payrolls declined by -190,000. The drop in payrolls was more or less in-line with my forecast of -185K, but much worse than the consensus forecast of -175K. It isn’t all bad though, during my first glance at the data I […]
It is unlikely that this morning’s ADP data (-203K), will lead to any substantial payroll revisions, despite what was a stellar ISM employment index. I wanted to note that over the decades, as the US has shifted from a manufacturing to service oriented economy, the significance of the relationship between the manufacturing ISM’s employment index […]