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China’s June Exports Fall 21.4%y/y in June

July 10th, 2009 Michael McDonough
Chinese exports continued struggling in June falling 21.4% y/y compared to analysts’ estimates of 21.0%, and a 26.4% y/y drop in May. Continued declines in exports are being offset by increased domestic demand, which is heavily bolstered by the country’s stimulus package. According to Bloomberg, China’s Premier Wen Jiabao believes the foundation for China’s economic recovery is not yet set and they will continue on a course of easy monetary policy and pro-active fiscal policy.

A continued decline in Chinese exports is a bad omen for shipping rates. Shipping rates over the last several months have been supported almost exclusively by China’s record importation of raw materials. Without a return of global demand for Chinese goods, many of these raw materials are just sitting in inventories one way or another. Thus, it is highly likely that China’s demand for raw materials will begin to wain. But, presently it appears Chinese iron imports rose 3.4% in June to 55.3mn tons. However, this could be caused by a lag effect of massive congestion of vessels waiting to unload off the coast of China, or possibly increased imports from India via land. Supporting this view is that one of China’s primary ports actually reported a 12% drop in ore imports from the previous month. In either case, I anticipate that this number will fall in the coming months.

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