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Consumer Prices Rise less Than Anticipated

August 14th, 2009 Michael McDonough

July’s CPI and Core CPI rose by +0.0% and +0.1%, respectively.  This result was slightly lower than the Bloomberg consensus of +0.1% for the headline number and +0.2% for the core. ON a year over year basis the headline CPI stands at -2.1%, while the core-CPI has gained +1.5% during the same time frame.  Lower consumer energy prices in July (-0.4%) combined with a decline in food prices (-0.3%) helped to suppress July’s headline CPI number. The modest increase in the core number was driven by higher new automobile, tobacco, medical care, and apparel prices.  Overall, this result shouldn’t give the inflation or deflation hawks much to worry about over the short-term.

Changes from preceding month
Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09
All items………. 0.3% 0.4% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Food and beverages 0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% 0.1% -0.2%
Housing……….. 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.2%
Apparel……….. 0.3% 1.3% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 0.7% 0.6%
Transportation…. 1.3% 1.9% -1.1% -0.4% 0.8% 4.2% 0.2%
Medical care…… 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Recreation…….. 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% -0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Education and
communication.. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Other goods and
services……. 0.3% 0.2% 2.7% 2.6% -0.2% 0.3% 0.8%
Special indexes:
Energy………… 1.7% 3.3% -3.0% -2.4% 0.2% 7.4% -0.4%
Food………….. 0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% 0.0% -0.3%
All items less
food and energy 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
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