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Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected

August 6th, 2009 Michael McDonough

Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, fell 38K to 550K, compared to a street consensus of 575K.  The week prior’s number was revised up to 588K from 584K.  This points to continued improvement in the labor market from what. however,  is a rather dismal base.  Claims at these levels still point toward a decreases in future payroll data, albeit, at a slower pace.  In any case the sector shows signs of improving, but likely won’t reach healthy levels until next year.  Continuing claims, which has one extra week’s lag, rose to 6.310mn from 6.241mn.  The market had a mixed reaction to this news as they wait for today’s retail sales report, and Friday’s payroll data.

In unrelated news, Friday’s critical payroll release could face some negative pressure on the back of a worse than anticipated ADP report and weakness in the ISM non-manufacturing employment index.

Initial Claims

Claims

States with a decline of more than 1K in Claims  (DOL)


State Change State Supplied Comment
NC -9,809 Fewer layoffs in the rubber/plastics, textile, furniture, industrial machinery, and trade industries.
MI -9,085 Fewer layoffs in the automobile industry.
FL -8,714 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and manufacturing industries, and agriculture.
GA -6,948 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and manufacturing industries.
AL -3,822 Fewer layoffs in the transportation equipment, primary metals, apparel, and manufacturing industries.
NY -3,577 Fewer layoffs in the transportation, service, and manufacturing industries.
PA -3,518 Fewer layoffs in the primary metals, fabricated metals, and service industries.
IN -3,478 Fewer layoffs in the automobile and manufacturing industries.
VA -2,975 Fewer layoffs in the automobile industry.
IL -2,835 Fewer layoffs in the trade, service, and manufacturing industries.
KY -1,697 Fewer layoffs in the automobile, trade, and manufacturing industries.
MO -1,648 Fewer layoffs in the manufacturing industry.
NJ -1,548 Fewer layoffs in the transportation, warehousing, service, and manufacturing industries.
WI -1,511 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, and manufacturing industries.
CT -1,459 No comment.
KS -1,187 No comment.
WA -1,165 No comment.
CA -1,138 No comment.
IA -1,112 No comment.
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