An Old Radio Piece
July 13th, 2010
An older piece I did on Bloomberg radio discussing the correlation between garbage and GDP. I am more putting it up here, so I don’t lose track of the file…
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Michael.McDonough@fiateconomics.com
Michael is an economist/strategist who has worked from Wall Street to Hong Kong primarily focusing on the U.S. and emerging markets. He has also written several columns. More
Michael is an economist/strategist who has worked from Wall Street to Hong Kong primarily focusing on the U.S. and emerging markets. He has also written several columns. More
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Articles of Note
Archives
- ▼ 2010 (141)
- ► August (1)
- ► July (9)
-
- A Rare Divergence for GDP Forecasts Highlights Uncertainties
- An Old Radio Piece
- More Seniors than Teens Now in the U.S. Labor Force
- My Recent TV Hits
- Car Sales in China a Victim of Tightening
- The IMF's Delusions of Grandeur for China
- Mortgage Delinquencies Point To Trouble Ahead
- S&P Now vs. The Great Depression
- Monthly Job Growth Almost Never Exceeds 400K
- ► June (18)
-
- Unemployment Rate Unlikely to Budge until 3mn New Jobs Created
- ECRI Weekly Leading Index Pointing Toward a Double-Dip
- Consumer Confidence To Remain Range Bound, Despite Friday's Marginal Improvement
- ‘What’flation, 2Y Treasuries Yielding 67bps
- Why Homebuilder Stocks Haven't Plunged
- China's Real Estate Free Fall May Not Bode Well For Commodities
- Germany vs. France Not Just Being Played on the Pitch
- Spain Begins to Echo Greece
- The Decline in the BDI Doesn't Mean Much...
- Risk Makes a Comeback
- Building Material Sales Add Volatility to Retail Sales
- France Shows Signs of Weakness...
- Chinese Government Officials May Have Leaked Key Economic Data
- This Week's Critical Government Bond Auctions, & Worries for Spain
- Spreads in Europe on Track to Test Pre-Bailout Levels
- 28% of all U.S. Income Comes From the Government
- Food Stamp Usage Explodes
- Money Supply Says No-Go to Inflation
- ► May (30)
-
- NOAA's Hurricane Forecast More Often Wrong Than Right
- A Great Video on the Problems in Europe...
- Purchase Aps Hit 13Y Low as Tax Credit Expires
- Fed Could Lower Spread for Currency Swaps to Increase European Liquidity
- Risk Returns with a Vengeance
- Euro Zone Countries Breached EU Fiscal Limits 57% of the Time (Bloomberg)
- Near-term Inflation Expectations Fall to Zero
- Risk Aversion the New Norm
- Swiss National Bank Intervention in EURCHF
- Political Risk Wearing on Investors
- Traders Lack Conviction in the Market
- Pricing Pressure Building within the Depths of the PPI
- Why Central Bank Swaps Haven't Put a Stop to LIBOR's Climb
- Credit Card Delinquencies Fall
- US Equities Outperforming The World
- Swiss Franc: A Managed Currency?
- Short-Term Inflation Expectations Drop Like a Rock
- Retail Sales Just Ain’t What They Used To Be:
- Preparing for Retail
- Stocks say Goodbye, & Euro says Hello (to the Crisis)
- GDP Growth’s All a Bunch of Garbage…
- Risk Aversion Not Just an Equities Story: Look for the Yen to Weaken
- Housing Recovery: To Remain a no Show in 2010
- Pressure for Chinese Tightening Continues to Build:
- Rising TED Spread Says ‘Hold on There’ to EU Bailout
- Europhoria Already Wanes...
- A Crossroad for the Eurozone's Survival
- TED Spread Begins to Spike: Counterparty Risk Rises
- Initial Jobless Claim's 'New Equilibrium' Can Benefit Payrolls
- PIIGS: Europe's 'Sub-Prime Borrowers'
- ► April (4)
- ► March (18)
-
- How Does Your States Crediting Rating & Tax Rates Compare
- Boeing's 787 Faces Critical Wing Test Today
- In The World of Rates, What Goes Down Must Come up; Expect Higher 10Y and Mortgage Rates
- First Portugal, Then New Home Sales, Next...
- Economists Warn Fed Could Hike Discount Rate Before Next Meeting
- Could Higher Industrial Production Result in Less Hiring?
- China's Tightening Tool Box...
- One Month's Not a Trend, But January's Trade Data Could Point To A Slowdown in Global Trade
- Where's the Unemployment Rate in Your State?
- Chinese RMB Appreciation Always Seems Six Months Away (But It's Coming)...
- Potentially Good News For Jobless Bankers & Lawyers
- Morgan Stanley Expects Strong Tightening from Canada
- 1981 Data Coming To a TV Near You (A Fun Retrospective)
- Temp Employment Pointing Toward Robust Payrolls
- Pending Home Sales Point Toward Continued Trouble for Housing
- Weakness in the Pound Quickly & Simply Explained
- Japan Still a Big Concern; More so Than Greece?
- ISM Disappoints, While Market Maintains its Gains
- ► February (25)
-
- Chilean Earthquake Map & Impact on Copper Production
- Existing Home Sales Moving Back To Pre-Tax Credit Levels?
- '23,000 now expected to lose jobs after shuttle retirement'
- Bumpy Road Ahead For Housing
- Jobless Claims Hit a Roadblock
- A Bad Day for New Home Sales
- Housing Market Faces Headwinds
- What To Look For This Week
- No Surprise, Fed Raises Discount Rate
- Limited Updates This Week
- China's Surprises on Timing, But Not Action
- Lending Spikes in China, Confidence Falls, & Consumer Prices Remain Tame for Now...
- Bernanke Comments
- Market News International: Internal Report Says Germany's Govt Cannot Help Greece
- Comments from Fitch and EU Commissioner on Greece & Credit Ratings
- ECB President Trichet Leaves Sydney Early to Attend Emergency Meeting
- Bullard Comments on Monetary Policy, Indicating a Fed Rate Hike Not Likely Over the Short-Run
- Rate Hikes Likely On Hold in China, At Least for Now...
- Kindling a Fire
- FT Highlights What I Believe is the Next Big Threat: A U.S. Downgrade
- A Mixed Payroll Picture
- Non-Manufacturing ISM Remains Subdued in January
- Concerns in Chinese Real Estate Sector Grow as Transaction Volumes Plummet
- Manufacturing Around the Worlds Grows Faster Than Expected
- ► January (36)
-
- Hoenig Dissent Only Surprise in FOMC's Statement
- Home Sales All Around Disappoint
- An Ominous Sign From the Philly Fed
- More on China
- Uncertainty of Chinese Tightening Continues to Weigh on Asian Markets
- Cantor Upgrades DryShips (DRYS) To 'Buy' From 'Hold'
- China Begins to Rein in Speculative Real Estate Purchases
- US Economics Week Ahead: Nothing's Certain
- The Markets Facing a Barrage of Uncertainties
- A Telling Sign from China's National Bureau of Statistics
- Chinese Central Bank to Raise Rates on Friday?
- Virgin America: Fast Reliable WiFi and CNN, All While 36K Feet Above Kansas
- US Economics Week Ahead: Housing Side Story & A Special Election
- A Possible Loophole for Dems if they Lose Tuesday's Special Election
- IP, CPI, & the NY Fed Survey
- More Evidence the Approaching IT Replacement Cycle will Exceed Analysts' Estimates
- December Retail Sales Disappoint
- More Signs Restrictions are Coming to a Chinese Property Market Near You
- Site Issues
- Tightening Seems More imminent in China
- Big Boost in Chinese Exports Could Lead to More Rapid Tightening
- China to Curb Real Estate Speculation; While Exports Grow 17.7% y/y
- US Economics Week Ahead: Retail Sales & The Start of Earnings
- Week End Update on my Global Macro Trading Strategies
- Consumer Credit Takes A Nose Dive
- Cantor Raises Price Target for DSX
- Payrolls Fall Hard in December, But Revised to Positive in November
- PC Sales Jump Since Windows 7 Release
- Another Reason to be Bearish on the Yen
- GM's New Battery Plant
- This Morning's Tightening in China Does Not Bode Well for Chinese Equities in 2010
- Non-Manufacturing ISM Goes Back Above 50, But Barely
- ADP Report May Point to Improved Non-Farm Payrolls
- HOGS Poised to Benefit from Rising Food Prices in China
- ISM Could Bode Well For Payrolls
- Chinese Snow to Cause More Than Just Delays
- ► 2009 (173)
- ► December (12)
-
- US Economics Week Ahead: 2010 Starts with a Bang
- Dell Set to Ride Approaching IT Replacement Cycle
- Chicago PMI Moves Higher
- US Economics Week Ahead: Quiet for the Holidays
- A Review of my EQ Based Global Macro Trading Ideas
- Existing Home Sales-- Surprise to the Upside
- 3Q09 GDP Revised Down, But 4Q Still Looks Strong
- US Economics Week Ahead: Retailers not Dreaming of a White Christmas
- An Economic Wrestling Match For Our Future
- US Economics Week Ahead: No Change by the Fed
- US Economics Week Ahead: Black or Red Friday?
- Apologies for this Week
- ► November (20)
-
- US Economics Week Ahead: Jobs to the Rescue?
- Dubai's Downfall
- US Economics Week Ahead: Is There Time for Turkey?
- Talking Turkey on Agriculture Trends
- Claims Unchanged
- Housing Pains & Inflation Creep
- Industrial Production Shows Modest Gain due to Utility Output
- October's Retail Sales: The Devil's in the Details
- US Economics Week Ahead: Retail Sales will set the Pace
- Coal in Your Stocking: Hypocrisy, Senility or Common Sense?
- Wavering Sentiment Likely to Raise Fears Among Retailers
- Trade Data: Good News for Recovery, But Wider Than Anticipated Deficit Likely Means Downward Revision to Q3 Growth
- Be On The Lookout....
- Mortgage Purchase Aps Realize a Precipitous Decline
- Chinese Consumers May Have Only Begun to Teethe
- US Economics Week Ahead: A Quiet Week; A Busy Friday
- Unemployment Rate Tops 10%, But Temp Employment Shows Some Signs of Life
- Non-Manufacturing ISM Takes a Modest Dip
- ADP Was a Non-Event, But Keep Your Eyes on this Morning's Non-Manu ISM Employment Index
- Morning Macro Recap: ISM & Pending Home Sales
- ► October (22)
-
- US Economics Week Ahead: Jobs & the Fed
- This Morning's Macro Recap: Income & Consumption, ECI, Chicago PMI, & Consumer Sentiment
- Andy Xie: Central Banks, Arsonists and Playing with Fire
- Intraday Major Yen Divergence; Parallel Derisking In Process (From ZeroHedge)
- GDP Back to Positive
- Positioning Yourself for Japan's Potential Demise...
- New Homes Sales & Durable Goods
- Sprott Asset Management Raises Concerns Over US Government's Financial Viability
- Consumer Confidence Hits 4 Month Low...
- US Economics Week Ahead: The End is Near! (for the recession...)
- Housing Starts Disappoint & PPI Turns Negative
- US Economics Week Ahead: Earnings Usurp Housing Data
- Morning Recap--CPI Shows Modest Gains, Claims Down, & Empire State Manuf. Survey Reaches 5Y High
- Retail Sales Data Indicates a Strengthening Consumer
- A Brief Global Macro View on the World's Markets
- US Economics Week Ahead: A Shortened Week with a Big Punch
- Initial Claims Fall 33K, Reach Lowest Levels Since January
- Non-Manufacturing ISM Breaks Above 50
- US Economics Week Ahead: Is October the new September?
- Job's Report Comes in Below Expectations, Unemployment to 26 Year High
- Tide Moves Out on Cash for Clunker Benefits
- Personal Income up 0.2%, Consumption Rises 1.3%
- ► September (35)
-
- September Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Drops
- Is the Yen Overvalued? (A Quick Look)
- September's Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Dips
- Case Shiller HPI an Improving Trend
- US Economics Week Ahead: Markets Try to Find Traction in an Array of Data
- Finding a Complement to the BDI May Lie in the Rails...
- Existing Home Sales Show Unexpected Decline
- FOMC Announces No Change... Fed's Purchase of Long-Term Treasuries Will End As Planned In Oct...
- Potential Market Negatives Part 4: A Word From the Wise
- US Economic Week Ahead: Big Ben & His Men (& Women)...
- Is a Falling Greenback Leading to Smooth Sailing for Shippers?
- Potentially Good News For Smaller Ships
- Jobless Claims & Housing Starts Both Improve
- Industrial Production Up +0.8%
- CPI Up +0.4, Core-CPI Up +0.1%
- Business Inventories Fall -1.0%
- Retail Sales & NY Manf. Survey Better Than Expected; PPI Higher than Anticipated
- Norton Rose Shipping Industry Survey Paints Bleak Picture
- Lehman's Impact on the BDI & Shipping (Then & Now)
- US Economics Week Ahead: A Deluge of Data
- Potential Market Negatives Part 3: Insider Selling
- September's Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Shows Gain
- August Import Prices Up More Than Expected
- Dahlman Rose & Co. Global Transportation Conference 2009 (Day 2: Trucking)
- Dahlman Rose & Co. Global Transportation Conference 2009 (Day 1: Railroads)
- Consumer Credit Outstanding Down US$21.55bn
- BDI Shows Labor Day Gains, But Capesize Rates Still Falling
- US Economics Week Ahead: The Calm Before The Storm
- Payrolls Decline by -216K, Unemployment Rate Moves Up To 9.7
- When Will the FOMC Turn From Dove to Hawk? Don't Hold Your Breath...
- Non-Manufacturing ISM Rises to 48.4 from 46.4
- Initial Claims Show Modest Decline
- US Railroad Activity Not a Bright Spot for Shipping Rates
- Productivity Up, Labor Costs Down, & ADP Might Not Be As Bad As It Seems
- ISM Up, Construction Spending Neutral, & Pending Home Sales Rise
- ► August (46)
-
- US Week Ahead: The Start of September...
- Consumer Sentiment Down Modestly From July
- Personal Income Flat, Consumer Expenditures Show Modest Gains
- State Budget Turmoil Good News For Cons, Bad News For Everyone Else…
- 2Q09 GDP Unchanged, Initial Jobless Claims Fall, & Corporate Profits Are Up
- New Home Sales Up Big
- Durable Goods Orders Rise Above Expectations
- Consumer Confidence Rises Well Above Forecast, FHFA Down
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index Shows Continued Improvement
- Capesize Rates Could Face Additional Pressure This Week
- US Week Ahead: To Buy Or Not To Buy
- July's Existing Home Sales Continue to Improve, Coming in Well Above Forecast
- Increase in Chinese Bank Capital Requirements Likely to Further Reduce New Lending
- US Mortgage Deliquencies Rise in 2Q09
- Leading Economic Indicators Show 4th Consecutive Monthly Increment, Philly Fed Survey Surprises to the Upside
- Drop in Chinese Lending Leads to Declines In Both The Shanghai Composite & The BDI
- Initial Jobless Claims Rise More Than Anticipated
- Article on Chinese Market By Andy Xie
- Inventory Restocking Could Help Support The BDI
- Housing Starts Fall, While Producer Prices Decline
- Potential Market Negatives Part 2: Shorts
- Housing Market Index Improves
- Potential Market Negatives Part 1: September
- Fed Extends the TALF
- Empire State Manufacturing Survey Moves Into Positive Territory
- US Week Ahead: Where's the Upside?
- Consumer Sentiment Shows Unexpected Drop
- July Industrial Production Shows First Gain in 9 Months
- Consumer Prices Rise less Than Anticipated
- Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise, Retail Sales Decline, & Foreclosures Are Up...
- Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, But Begins to Scrap Treasury Purchase Program
- Trade Balance Widens to -US$27.0bn
- Interest in 'Cash for Clunkers' Starting to Wane?
- Productivity Up, Unit Labor Costs Down
- US Week Ahead: Steady As She Goes
- June Consumer Credit Falls More Than Expected
- Tsingtao's Profit up 68% During 1H09 on Higher Volumes
- Payrolls Beat Forecast, Unemployment Falls
- Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected
- July's Non-Manufacturing ISM comes in Below Expectations
- ADP Report Improves, But Still Below Estimates
- Pending Home Sales Surprises to the Upside
- Personal Income Falls Slightly More Than Expected
- Vast Potential in Chinese Beer Market Barely Tapped
- ISM & US Construction Index come in Above Expectations
- US Week Ahead: Jobs & Manufacturing
- ► July (30)
-
- 2Q09 Advanced GDP Better Than Estimates on Government Expenditures
- Claims Continue to Rise, Due to Erroneous Adjustment Factors
- Oil Prices Likely to Recede by Year’s End
- Durable Goods Fall 2.5% in June, But There's Better News in the Details
- California Budget Furloughs Put Into Perspective
- Consumer Confidence Comes in Below Expectations
- Case Shiller Shows First M/M Gain Since 2006
- Unusual Rally in DryShips (DRYS)
- New Home Sales Rise 11%, Crushing Market Expectations
- Economics Week Ahead: GDP & Earnings Steal the Show
- Consumer Sentiment Falls on Jobs Weakness
- Existing Home Sales Beat Estimates, Rise 3.6%
- Initial Claims Climb 30K to 554K
- Leading Indicators Up: A Good Sign for the Economy
- US Economic Week Ahead: Cue Earnings
- June Housing Starts Show Big Gains
- Philly Manufacturing Index Declines More Than Expected
- Jobless Claims Drop, But Reading is too Optimistic
- Empire Survey and Industrial Production Surprise to the Upside
- Retail Sales Jump, but the Story is in the Details...
- US Week Ahead: A Hectic Week on Data & Earnings
- China's June Exports Fall 21.4%y/y in June
- Initial Claims Come in Better than Expected
- Alcoa's Earnings Come in Above Consensus Estimates
- MBA Purchase Applications Composite Index Up 10.9%
- ICSC-Goldman Store Sales-- Shows Growth, But Redbook Says Otherwise
- Non-Manufacturing ISM 47.0 vs Consensus Forecast of 46.7
- US Economic Week Ahead: The Calm after the Storm
- June ADP, Comes in Below Expectations
- Chinese Manufacturing Shows Marginal Gains
- ► June (5)
- ► May (2)
- ► January (1)
- ► 2008 (45)
- ► November (2)
- ► October (1)
- ► September (3)
- ► August (6)
- ► July (6)
- ► June (1)
- ► April (1)
- ► March (16)
-
- U.S. Week Ahead: ISM and Employment Steal the Show
- Short Interest Ratio NYSE Top 100
- A simple quick explanation as to why US gasoline prices will continue rising rapidly
- Week Ahead: The Potential to be a Downer
- Opposition Party Wins Taiwanese Presidential Election
- Taiwanese Presidential Elections Being Held Today
- Chinese Monetary Policy vs. Inflation FIGHT!
- Fed Cuts 75bp
- The Week Ahead: Fed Cuts and Bank Failures
- Food or Fuel for Thought?
- Chinese Inflation: A Mounting Problem (Update)
- Inflation, Inflation, Inflation
- Now What? The Week Ahead
- How will it end?
- The Baltic Dry Index (BDI): Can it tell us anything?
- A Potential for Blood-letting: The Week Ahead
- ► February (2)
- ► January (7)
-
- Fed likely to go 50 (Another look at China, India, Las Vegas Sands, and an introduction to Taiwan)
- Looking for Alpha through Beta
- A strong move by the Fed
- Has the market overpriced the probability of a US recession?
- Does the Federal Reserve Board's Senior Loan Officer Survey imply anything for growth?
- Topics I am currently looking into:
- The Blog
Recent Posts
- Future Updates
- A Rare Divergence for GDP Forecasts Highlights Uncertainties
- An Old Radio Piece
- More Seniors than Teens Now in the U.S. Labor Force
- My Recent TV Hits
- Car Sales in China a Victim of Tightening
- The IMF’s Delusions of Grandeur for China
- Mortgage Delinquencies Point To Trouble Ahead
- S&P Now vs. The Great Depression
- Monthly Job Growth Almost Never Exceeds 400K
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