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IP, CPI, & the NY Fed Survey

January 15th, 2010 Michael McDonough

December’s Industrial Production rose +0.6%, inline with a Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.6%. November’s release was revised to +0.8% to +0.6%.  December’s reading was almost entirely due to a 5.9% jump in utilities stemming from extremely cold weather around the country. The index’s manufacturing component actually fell -0.1% during the month, while mining output rose modestly by 0.2%.

December’s Consumer Price Index gained +0.1%, after rising +0.4% in November. On a year over year basis, CPI is up +2.7%. Core CPI rose by +0.1% during the month following no change in November. On a year over year basis Core CPI is up +1.8%.  This data continues to indicate that inflation will not be a concern over the near-term,thereby reducing pressure on the fed to remove accommodative monetary policy.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey jumped to 15.92 in January, compared to a revised 4.50 in December (originally reported at 2.55). It is important to note that this month’s data includes annual revisions. Looking the components: New orders rose to 20.48 in January from 2.77 in December; Prices paid climbed to 32.00 from 19.74; the 6-month outlook finished at 56.00 from 52.63; and finally the employment index moved into positive territory with a reading of 4.00 in January from -5.26 in December.  This result was well above expectations, and it will be interesting to see of the Philly Fed Survey demonstrates a similar surprise on January 21st.

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