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A Review of my EQ Based Global Macro Trading Ideas

December 22nd, 2009 Michael McDonough

Today I wanted to quickly highlight the performance of my equity based trading strategies around my global macro economic investment thesis.

Emerging markets: I continue to believe that emerging-market growth and equity performance — especially in countries with a strong consumer base — will continue to outpace developed nations in 2010. Therefore, you should still consider long positions in iShares Brazil (EWZ) and iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI).

Risks in Brazil include an eventual uptick in the central bank’s Selic rate, which could stymie the country’s growth. In China, early inflationary warnings could eventually lead to tightening actions by the government that could hamper growth. Still, I believe upside potential outweighs the risks over the short term. For more details on this trade idea, please see my piece published on Oct. 9 titled “Easy Money is a Big Driver.”

Steel: The continuing global economic recovery combined with relatively conservative steel demand estimates for 2010 should help propel steel prices in the year ahead. In addition, the potential consolidation of inefficient Chinese steel mills may lead to reduced output, placing excess demand in a favorable pricing environment on South Korea’s Posco (PKX ) and Japan’s JFE Holdings. Strong demand in other emerging markets should help to support Gerdau (GGB). Risks to these investments include a weaker-than-anticipated global recovery or an oversupply of steel weighing on prices. See my column from Oct 16, “Coal Seeing Recovery in Foreign Demand,” for more thoughts on this theme.

Japan: Not much has changed on my bearish view toward the yen since I published a piece called simply, “How to Play Japan” back on Nov. 13. In fact, I would argue that support for any further yen appreciation has dissolved, creating a good entry point for a short position via puts on ProShares Ultra Yen (YCL) or a straight long position in ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS). This trade depends heavily on timing, and I anticipate that the yen should move back above 100 per U.S. dollar over the coming months.Japan’s woes have recently been noticed by Moody’s, where a senior vice president was recently quoted by Bloomberg as saying, “Things we are most concerned about are the lack of well-articulated long-term fiscal consolidation and a debt reduction plan.”

Rail: Warren Buffett’s purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) provided a strong boost for railroads and provided Buffett with a bet not only on long-term U.S. recovery, but also on coal. I recommended CSX (CSX), Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) based on what I assumed to be Buffett’s investment thesis. These positions may not have the same short-term upside potential as some of my other ideas, but they should provide some longer-term value in your portfolio. My piece from Nov. 13, “Coal in Your Stocking: Hypocrisy, Senility or Common Sense?” has more information about this trading idea.

Agriculture: Ag products will see more demand as developing nations begin to eat more like developed countries. Ag stocks also provide investors with a good real-time hedge against inflation and thus far have lagged pricing increments seen in other commodities. I maintain my constructive long-term view on wheat, corn, sugar, soybean, cocoa and hogs. One way you might play these positions is through exchange-traded fund PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA), which is unique in that it invests in actual commodities futures vs. agricultural companies. For more information on trades in the ag sector, please see my piece published on Nov. 20 called, “Talking Turkey on Agriculture Trends.”

China energy: Very little has changed since I first published my thesis on Chinese energy companies last week, “Three Ways to Play China Oil & Gas for 2010.” I still believe that PetroChina (PTR), Sinopec (SNP), and CNOOC (CEO) are all well positioned to take advantage of China’s growing energy and natural gas market in the year ahead.

Global Macro Trading IdeasSource: Bloomberg

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