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Claims Unchanged

November 19th, 2009 Michael McDonough

Initial jobless claims came in unchanged this morning at -505K, while its overall downward trend continues to indicate that fewer people are losing their jobs.  This should help decelerate the climb in the unemployment rate and decline in payrolls, until they eventually peak some time during the first half of 2010.  It is very likely initial claims will drop below the psychological barrier of -500K over the next couple of weeks.  Presently, I anticipate that we will see a smaller decline in payrolls for November than we did in October. In fact there is a possibility the decline in payrolls for November could be fewer than 100K, which has not happened since Jan. 2008.

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