Home > Data Release, GDP, Inflation, Labor Market, US > Morning Recap–CPI Shows Modest Gains, Claims Down, & Empire State Manuf. Survey Reaches 5Y High

Morning Recap–CPI Shows Modest Gains, Claims Down, & Empire State Manuf. Survey Reaches 5Y High

October 15th, 2009 Michael McDonough

September’s CPI rose +0.2%, compared to a +0.4% increment a month prior. Core CPI increased +0.2%.  This was generally in-line with the Bloomberg consensus forecast.  Food prices fell -0.1% during the month while energy prices rose +0.6%.  These modest gains continue to indicate that some deflationary risk remains on the table, and inflation should not be a big factor in the Fed’s decisions over the near-term as the unemployment rate likely moves north of 10.0%.

Initial jobless claims fell 10K to 514K.  Continued improvements in initial claims should lead to a slower rate of decline for the payrolls.  Nevertheless, claims are still depressed and things will continue getting worse before they get better in the labor market.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose to 34.57 in October, compared to 18.88 a month prior.  In October, new orders increased to +30.82, versus +19.84 a month prior, while prices paid fell to +19.48 from +20.24. The 6-month outlook index finished at +55.69 from +52.29.  Surprisingly, this is the index’s highest reading in over five years.  This is an extremely positive report for manufacturing in the NY Fed’s district.  Additionally, a large jump in the new orders index should help support next month’s release.

The Philadelphia Fed’s general business activity index fell to 11.5 in September, compared to 14.1 a month prior.  This was slightly below the consensus forecast of 12.0  The prices paid index rose to 21.3 from 14.9, while the new orders index increased to 6.2 from 3.3. The employment index moved to -6.8 from -14.3.  Despite coming in slightly below expectations the number remains positive, and an increment in the new orders index should help maintain positive performance at least through next month.

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