Personal Income showed no change for September after a revised increment +0.1% in August, this was inline with the consensus forecast. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) declined -0.5% in September, versus a revised increment of +1.4% in August. The decline in consumption is the continued aftereffects caused by the expiration of the US government’s ‘Cash for […]
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GDP
The BEA’s advance estimate of 3Q GDP indicates that the economy grew at an for the first time since 2Q08 at annualized 3.5% pace. The most surprising data from the report was a relatively robust increase in personal consumption which grew at 3.4% during the quarter–contributing 2.4% to the quarters 3.5% growth. The primary driven […]
September’s new home sales came in at a disappointing seasonally adjusted annual rate of 402K units, compared to a revised pace of 417K a month prior. In September the supply of new homes remained stable at 7.5 months. The median new home price increased by 2.5% to $204,800. The reason for the decline can likely […]
September’s CPI rose +0.2%, compared to a +0.4% increment a month prior. Core CPI increased +0.2%. This was generally in-line with the Bloomberg consensus forecast. Food prices fell -0.1% during the month while energy prices rose +0.6%. These modest gains continue to indicate that some deflationary risk remains on the table, and inflation should not […]
September’s non-manufacturing ISM came in this morning at 50.9, compared to a previous reading of 48.4. This is the index’s highest reading since May 2008. this was inline with market expectations. September’s Employment Index rose to 44.3 from 43.5 last month. The standalone Business Index fell slightly to 55.1 from 51.3. The Prices Paid Index […]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index unexpectedly fell back below 50 to 46.1 in September. This was well below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 52.0, and August’s reading of 50.0. I warned in my US week ahead that this indicator had the potential of surprising to the downside due to seasonal effects, but a drop of […]
Industrial production grew by +0.8% in August, compared to a consensus forecast of +0.7%, and a previous reading of +0.5%. Much of this growth is attributable to increased manufacturing stemming from the US government’s Cash for Clunkers program. The capacity utilization rate rose to 69.6 from a revised 69.0 in July. The increment in IP […]
August’s Retail Sales rose 2.7%, compared to a consensus forecast of +2.0% and a previous reading in July of -0.1%. The ex-autos component of retail sales came in at 1.1%, versus a consensus forecast of +0.4% and a previous reading of -0.6% in July. Therefore, what is typically a bump in sales due to better […]
The composite non-manufacturing ISM index rose to 48.4 from 46.4 in July, compared to a consensus forecast of 48.1. The last time the index was at or above the break-even point of 50 was September 2008. But, recent trends imply that the index could move above that point in the coming months. The employment index […]
The ISM rose for the 8th consecutive month finishing August at 52.9, this was the index’s first reading above the break even point of 50 since January 2008. Improvements in manufacturing will likely have positive implications for 3Q09 Real GDP growth. The new orders index increased to 64.9 from 55.3 a month prior. This index […]