January’s Manufacturing ISM Index rose to 58.4, now coming in above 50 for six consecutive months. The this reading was much better than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 55.5 with individual estimates from 53.5 to 58.0. Looking at the ISM’s sub-indices; prices paid rose to 70.0 in January from 61.5 in December; the employment index […]
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The December non-manufacturing ISM came in at 50.1 versus 48.7, a month prior. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was 50.5 with estimates ranging from 48.0 to 52.1. The all important employment index finished December at 44.0 versus 41.6 in November. The prices paid index remained well above 50 coming in at 58.7 from 57.8. The standalone […]
The manufacturing ISM rose to 55.9 from 53.6 in November. Looking at the components the Prices Paid Index rose to 61.5 in December from 55.0, while New Orders jumped to 65.5 from 60.3 in November. But, the big story may be in the Employment Index, which climbed to 52.0 in December from 50.8. This result […]
The Chicago PMI’s better than anticipated reading of 60.0 in December from 56.1 a month prior continues to indicate improving business conditions throughout the Chicago area–and a potentially positive forward looking indicator toward December’s ISM. All of the indicator’s components, excluding inventories, have moved above the break-even point of 50. The most noteworthy jump was […]
This morning’s unexpected downward revision of third quarter GDP to 2.2% from 2.8% was unexpected, but should be made up for by growth around 4.5% in the current quarter. Looking at this morning’s data, several components were revised between the preliminary and final GDP estimate leading to a decline of -$17.3 billion. The revisions were […]
October’s Housing Starts disappointed the market finishing at an annual rate of 529,000 (-10.6%), while September’s release was revised up to 592K from 590K. Permit’s in October declined -4.0%, to 552K. Single-family starts fell -6.8%, while multi-family homes plummeted by -34.6%. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was for starts at 600K, with forecasts ranging from 570K […]
Industrial Production rose +0.1% in October, versus a Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.4%.At the same time September’s reading was revised up from +0.6% to +0.7%. As I warned in my US Economics Week Ahead, manufacturing production lost -0.1% during the month while utility output more than offset this decline by climbing 1.6%, on what was […]
As I mentioned in my week ahead, retail sales would likely set the pace for the week, and we received the data this morning. Retail sales rose +1.4% in October, compared to a revised -2.3% change in September (originally -1.5%). This was well above the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.9%,however, this good news was […]
September’s trade deficit widened more than anticipated to -US$36.5B from a revised -US$30.8bn in August (originally -US$30.7bn). Exports rose by +2.9% to US$132.0B, while imports were up a more significant +5.8% to US$168.4B–with auto imports rising a substantial US$1.4bn. It is not at all unusual for the trade deficit to widen during the early stages […]
The ISM manufacturing index rose in October to 55.7 from 52.6 in September, which was above expectations. This was the highest reading for the index since April. The prices paid index climbed to 65.0 in October from 63.5 a month prior. The employment index jumped to 53.1 during the month from 46.2 in September. The […]