US 2Q09 GDP remained unchanged from the advance reading of -1.0%, a month earlier. The consensus estimate for the revision was -1.5%. Despite what was no change in the headline number, there were revisions to the data behind it with exports and consumption being revised up, while inventories and non-residential spending were revised down. […]
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GDP
New orders for durable goods rose by 4.9% in July, compared to a consensus forecast of +3.3%, and a previous revised decline of -1.3%. This is the index’s largest increment since July 2007. This month’s increment was bolstered by the US government’s popular ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program and a significant rise in commercial aircraft orders […]
July’s leading economic indicators index rose 0.6%, experiencing its fourth consecutive month of gains. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was for an increment of +0.7%. Rate spread, claims, and manufacturing hours all made positive contributions, while consumer expectations, M2, and permits were the biggest negative contributors. The LEI tends to be a good forward looking indicator […]
July’s Industrial Production Index rose by +0.5%, compared to a Bloomberg consensus of +0.6%. his was the index’s first gain in nine months. Capacity utilization came in slightly higher than expected at 68.5% compared to a consensus forecast of 68.0%. The manufacturing output experienced an increment of +1.0%, mostly attributable to increased automobile production. Excluding […]
The June trade balance widened to -US$27.0bn compared to -US$26.0bn the previous month, and a consensus forecast of -US$28.6bn. Exports rose +2.0% in the month to US$125.8bn, but were more than offset by an even bigger increase in imports at 2.3% to US$152.8bn. The primary driver behind June’s widening was higher energy related prices. The […]
Productivity rose 6.4% in 2Q09 compared to a consensus forecast of 5.5%. This is the biggest gain since 2003. The drop was due to the amount of hours worked declining faster than output. At the same time, unit labor costs fell -5.8% versus a consensus forecast of -2.8%. In face the of lay-offs and reduced […]
July’s non-manufacturing ISM came in at 46.4, compared to last month’s reading of 47.0 in June, and a market consensus of 48.2. July’s employment index moved to 41.5 from 43.4. The prices paid index moved to 41.3 from 53.7. Weakness in the employment index coupled with a weaker than anticipated ADP report could place negative […]
July’s ISM came in well above expectations at 48.9, compared to June’s reading of 44.8, a reading over 50 would indicate expansion. The employment index rose to 45.6 from 40.7, while prices paid rose to 55.0 from 50.0. The growth in the employment index could help alleviate some pressure on this Friday’s employment report, it […]
The 2Q09 advanced GDP estimate came in at an annual rate of -1.0%, or better than analysts most recent estimates. This reading is much improved compared to last quarter’s -6.5% reading. However, looking behind the headline, a big jump in government expenditures offset what was a substantial decline in personal consumption, which contributed -0.9% to […]
June’s Durable goods orders were down 2.5%, the biggest drop in 5 months, on the back of weak demand for transportation and communication equipment. The Bloomberg consensus forecast stood at -0.6%. Making matters worse, May’s number was revised down to 1.3% from 1.8%. There was some good news in the details at least; Durable good […]