Consumer credit fell -US$10.3bn in June, with May’s release being revised down to -US$5.4bn. The street consensus was for a drop of -US$5.0bn. This index does not included mortgages or any loans backed by real estate. Looking at the index’s components, revolving credit (credit card balances) dropped -US$5.4bn in June compared to -US$4.9bn in May. […]
Archive:
Data Release
Payrolls in the US fell by -247,000 in July, with the unemployment rate moving to 9.4% from 9.5%. This compares to last month’s revised change of -443K, and a consensus forecast of -300K. This number exceeds both the streets and my own expectations. The drop in the unemployment rate was caused by a reported decrease […]
Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, fell 38K to 550K, compared to a street consensus of 575K. The week prior’s number was revised up to 588K from 584K. This points to continued improvement in the labor market from what. however, is a rather dismal base. Claims at these levels still point toward […]
July’s non-manufacturing ISM came in at 46.4, compared to last month’s reading of 47.0 in June, and a market consensus of 48.2. July’s employment index moved to 41.5 from 43.4. The prices paid index moved to 41.3 from 53.7. Weakness in the employment index coupled with a weaker than anticipated ADP report could place negative […]
July’s ADP National Employment Report showed a change in payrolls of -350K, compared to a revised drop of -463K in June. The latest Bloomberg consensus estimate was -350K. The job market continues to improve, despite remaining at dismal levels. Initial market reaction was negative to the report with interest rates trading up and equities futures […]
An upward surprise in this morning’s pending home sales data helped to restore some sentiment to the market after a disappointing personal income release. Pending home sales were up 3.6% in June, compared to a consensus forecast of 0.7%. This was the 5th consecutive month of gains. Pending home sales were up in all four […]
Personal Income fell 1.3% in June, compared to a revised increment of 1.3% in May. This decline was likely due to continue weakness in the labor market coupled with a reduction in government transfers through stimulus payments. May’s data included several one-time government payments to eligible individuals that totaled US$157.6bn at an annual rate. June’s […]
July’s ISM came in well above expectations at 48.9, compared to June’s reading of 44.8, a reading over 50 would indicate expansion. The employment index rose to 45.6 from 40.7, while prices paid rose to 55.0 from 50.0. The growth in the employment index could help alleviate some pressure on this Friday’s employment report, it […]
The 2Q09 advanced GDP estimate came in at an annual rate of -1.0%, or better than analysts most recent estimates. This reading is much improved compared to last quarter’s -6.5% reading. However, looking behind the headline, a big jump in government expenditures offset what was a substantial decline in personal consumption, which contributed -0.9% to […]
Initial Claims rose 25K to 584K, as the index continues to adjust for erroneous seasonal adjustment factors stemming from early auto plant closures. The good news these askew effects have by now likely all been washed out, so we should once again be able to rely on claims as a reliable indicator. On that note, […]