Initial jobless claims rose this morning by 15K to 576K compared to last week’s number revised number of 561K, and a consensus forecast of 550K. This is the second consecutive week claims have unexpectedly risen. The 4wk moving average moved up by 4,250 to 570K. Despite the rise over the past two weeks, claims should […]
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Data Release
Housing starts fell to 0.581 in July compared to 0.587mn. This number was slightly below the market consensus. The 1% drop in starts comes after a 10% increase in July. Single family starts actually rose 1.7%, but this was more than offset by a 13% decline in multi-family starts. Starts fell 16% in the Northeast, […]
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index improved to 18 in August compared to 17 in July. This is the idnex’s highest reading since June 2008. This index measures builders’ views over the conditions of the housing market; any reading below 50 implies their view is negative. The index remains depressed primarily due to, improving, but […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey moved back into positive territory for the first time in over a year in August with a reading of +12.08 from -0.55. This is the index’s highest reading since November 2007. New orders rose to +13.43 from +5.89, the prices paid index increased to +13.83 from +10.42m and the The […]
Augusts’ preliminary consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell this morning with a reading of 63.2, compared to a Bloomberg consensus forecast of 68.5 and a July reading of 66.0. It was anticipated that modest improvements to the employment situation and stock market gains would help lift this index, but this clearly was not the case. At […]
July’s Industrial Production Index rose by +0.5%, compared to a Bloomberg consensus of +0.6%. his was the index’s first gain in nine months. Capacity utilization came in slightly higher than expected at 68.5% compared to a consensus forecast of 68.0%. The manufacturing output experienced an increment of +1.0%, mostly attributable to increased automobile production. Excluding […]
July’s CPI and Core CPI rose by +0.0% and +0.1%, respectively. This result was slightly lower than the Bloomberg consensus of +0.1% for the headline number and +0.2% for the core. ON a year over year basis the headline CPI stands at -2.1%, while the core-CPI has gained +1.5% during the same time frame. Lower […]
As expected the Fed announced no changes to the target range for the federal funds rate, which currently stands at between 0% and 0.25%. The market was trading up prior to the announcement on what was generally expected to be a more constructive economic outlook from the Fed. In fact the Fed did seem more […]
The June trade balance widened to -US$27.0bn compared to -US$26.0bn the previous month, and a consensus forecast of -US$28.6bn. Exports rose +2.0% in the month to US$125.8bn, but were more than offset by an even bigger increase in imports at 2.3% to US$152.8bn. The primary driver behind June’s widening was higher energy related prices. The […]
Productivity rose 6.4% in 2Q09 compared to a consensus forecast of 5.5%. This is the biggest gain since 2003. The drop was due to the amount of hours worked declining faster than output. At the same time, unit labor costs fell -5.8% versus a consensus forecast of -2.8%. In face the of lay-offs and reduced […]