The FT’s Alphaville published an interesting article today highlighting a piece by Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist and strategist David Rosenberg that set out to answer the question; who is buying into the current rally? I think the piece is both timely and informative, and I recommend you give it a read: Just who is buying […]
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Thematic Piece
In retrospect, the widespread panic that engulfed the world’s financial markets after the fall of Lehman Brothers may have been somewhat overblown considering the actual long-term impact of the event, which was significantly mitigated through innovative monetary policy. But at the time, this did not prevent an almost immediate shut-down of credit markets around the […]
For the next part of my highly overdue ‘Potential Market Negatives’ series, I wanted to highlight recently elevated amounts of insider selling. Insider buying peaked at March while the market was at or very close to interim lows, however, since then buying has shifted to net selling (see chart). This could of course be due […]
Recently, concerns have been mounting over whether or not the Fed may need to consider a more hawkish stance over potential inflationary pressure. Increments over the past several days in the price indices for both the Manufacturing ISM and Non-Manufacturing ISM have only exacerbated these worries. To help quantify this situation I dusted off the […]
I was recently passed an article published in USA Today, which discussed some of the challenges states are facing due to dwindling state coffers. Several states, including even New York, have decided to close down correctional facilities and reduce staff to ward off the budget shortfalls. My first thought was that the prisoners impacted would […]
Updating yesterday’s theme I was able to collect monthly new lending data from China. The chart below shows the relationships between new lending in China and the BDI. A recent decline of new lending in China is a likely factor behind the recent pullback in shipping rates and Chinese equity markets. The decline in Chinese […]
The market generally accepts that over the months’ ahead companies will begin restocking dwindling inventories. In fact Goldman Sachs recently updated their 2H09 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 1.0% on the back of expected inventory restocking. This will undoubtedly have a positive effect on US industrial Production, manufacturing, and ultimately US GDP growth for a […]
For the next part of my ‘Potential Market Negative’ series I wanted to take a look at short interest on the NYSE. This summer’s rally has begun squeezing out a good number of shorts from the market, reducing the short interest on the NYSE to around 14bn shares in July from over 16bn shares in […]
I wanted to do a quick series highlighting and quantifying some concerns facing investors over the coming months. For the first part of this series I wanted to highlight monthly equity performance, as tracked by the S&P500 total return index, from 1993 through today. September has the dubious distinction of being known as the worst […]
I was perusing the internet the other night, as I usually do, and began to notice a trend. It all started with this headline “SABMiller Halts Beer Volume Drop on Chinese Demand”. At first I didn’t think too much of, so I move on. Several minutes later, on a completely unrelated site, I come across […]