Today I wanted to quickly highlight the performance of my equity based trading strategies around my global macro economic investment thesis. Emerging markets: I continue to believe that emerging-market growth and equity performance — especially in countries with a strong consumer base — will continue to outpace developed nations in 2010. Therefore, you should still […]
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Thematic Piece
As the invisible hand of the market continues wrestling the imprudent hand of governments; consequences will be felt across the globe as one hand hits the table… Government stimulus and monetary policy has undoubtedly led us out of one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression, but what impact will these policies have on […]
Here is an excerpt from my Real Money column being published this morning: In 1909 the completion of the Metropolitan Life Building—the world’s tallest building—coincided with the beginning of a two year recession in the US. Between 1929 and 1931 40 Wall Street, the Empire State Building, and the Chrysler Building were all erected in […]
An excerpt from today’s column on RealMoney… “In tune with the Thanksgiving spirit–eating–I want to discuss a budding topic that’s garnering more attention lately from a growing number of my clients: food, or more specifically, agriculture. There are many ways to tackle this topic, but what I wanted to highlight today is the growing caloric […]
An excerpt from “Coal in Your Stocking: Hypocrisy, Senility or Common Sense?” At lunch last week with former colleague and Wall Street writer/editor Bill Johnsen, the topic du jour was Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI). Bill wanted to know if I thought the acquisition was an act of […]
Tomorrow I will be publishing an interesting piece on TheStreet.com’s Real Money section titled “Coal in your stocking: hypocrisy, senility, or common sense?” The piece discusses Mr. Buffett’s recent acquisition of BNSF, and highlights his indirect bet on coal. The piece also highlights some trading ideas in the coal and railroad sectors that you may […]
Since China opened the flood gates to foreign investment in the 1990s, the country has significantly outpaced the developed world, especially the US, in terms of economic growth (see Chinese vs. US real GDP growth chart). Consequences of China’s success have included increased urbanization (see population chart) and a burgeoning middle class. Never before in […]
-Strong domestic demand for Japanese government bonds has permitted Japan to keep interest rates at or near 0 despite significant increases to the government’s debt burden, with no significant currency depreciation, and almost no economic growth. But, this model may be coming to an end -An aging Japanese population will have several negative effects on […]
In a monthly investment strategy letter written by Eric Sprott and David Franklin of Sprott Asset Management titled ‘Surreality Check… Dead Government Walking’ they convey their concerns over the US government’s ability to finance its growing burden. In the letter they clearly state: The United States Government is on a trajectory to default on their […]
This is a very short global macro overview of today’s markets. I do not recommend any of the trades mentioned in this report, but hope they help reinforce your own view or help you generate some news ideas. Monetary policy around the globe remains easy, providing ample liquidity and room for credit growth. Additionally, fiscal […]