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February 2010

Chilean Earthquake Map & Impact on Copper Production

The main port which has been shut down by the earthquake is in Valparaíso just west of Santiago.  The Codelco copper mine impacted is 50kms north of Santiago in Andina, and produces an estimated 600K tons per year.  Codelco’s other mines in northern Chile are reported to be operating normally.  Anglo American Plc reported yesterday […]

Existing Home Sales Moving Back To Pre-Tax Credit Levels?

The chart below illustrates how existing home sales appear to be pulling back to levels that would have been expected without a surge in demand stemming from the first time home buyer tax credit, despite the programs extension/expansion.  This could be an indication that housing demand was mostly sopped up by the original tax credit, […]

‘23,000 now expected to lose jobs after shuttle retirement’

Here is an interesting read regarding job losses due to the space shuttle’s retirement: http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100226/NEWS0204/2260321/23-000-now-expected-to-lose-jobs-after-shuttle-retirement The unemployment rate in Florida is already running well above the national average: Source: Bloomberg

Bumpy Road Ahead For Housing

This morning’s disappointing new home sales release for January reiterates the trend I outlined in my piece published on Real Money this morning titled ‘Housing Recovery Starts to Buckle’. I continue to believe housing will face a number of hurdles this year, and is unlikely to enjoy anything more than a modest, though bumpy, recovery.

Jobless Claims Hit a Roadblock

What had been an improving trend in initial jobless claims has hit a roadblock with claims rising this morning to by 22K to 496K .  Recent volatility can be attributed to everything from weather to a backlog of claims in California, but in the end still points to further deterioration for the monthly employment report.  […]

A Bad Day for New Home Sales

January’s record low new home sales data has made it fairly obvious the government’s extended/expanded home buyer tax credit has yet to have a significant impact on the sector.  The pace of new home sales plummeted by 11.2% to a level of 309K in January.  The months supply of new homes rose sharply reaching 9.1 […]

Housing Market Faces Headwinds

This morning the Case-Shiller HPI dropped by -1.1% in Q4 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. The index was down -2.51% on an annual basis. This compares to a 3.31% quarterly rise in the third quarter.  I continue to believe that housing prices will come under continued pressure throughout 2010 after the expiration of the government’s […]

What To Look For This Week

This week I am going to keep a close eye on several housing reports, which include January’s new (Wed) and existing (Fri) home sales along with December’s Case Shiller HPI (Tue)–December is the first month after what would have been the expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit.  December’s home prices likely came […]

No Surprise, Fed Raises Discount Rate

Chairman Bernanke recently indicated that the Fed was considering an increase in the discount rate, which tends to mean it is going to happen and soon.  It happened, the Fed this evening announced an increase in the discount rate to 0.75% from 0.50%, moving it closer to its pre-crisis spread to the Fed Funds Rate […]

Limited Updates This Week

I am on vacation in Seattle this week, and will have a limited number of updates on Fiat and Twitter.  Please contact me with any questions or recommendations on restaurants or bars (with good beer selections) in the Seattle/Redmond area.