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February 2010

FT Highlights What I Believe is the Next Big Threat: A U.S. Downgrade

“Unless further measures are taken to reduce the [U.S.] budget deficit further or the economy rebounds more vigorously than expected, the federal financial picture as presented in the projections for the next decade will at some point put pressure on the triple A government bond rating,” -Moodys This quote came from a note Moody’s released […]

A Mixed Payroll Picture

January’s non-farm payrolls fell by -20K, compared to a Bloomberg consensus forecast of an increase of +15K. December’s release was revised down to -150K from -85K, while November’s number was revised up to +64K from its original release of +4K. January’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9.7%, from 10.0%–driven by a shrinking workforce.  Keep in […]

Non-Manufacturing ISM Remains Subdued in January

Janurary’s non-manufacturing ISM release rose modestly to 50.5 versus 49.8 in December. This was just below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 51.0. The employment index rose to 44.6 from 43.6, while the prices paid index climbed to 61.2 from 59.6.  The new orders index took a bit of a bounce in January moving to 54.7 […]

Concerns in Chinese Real Estate Sector Grow as Transaction Volumes Plummet

Concerns over the future impact Chinese policies could have on the real estate sector have nearly halted transactions in the sector as buyers expect prices will begin to fall. According to the China Securities Journal, the volume of second-hand property transactions fell nearly 70% m/m in January, with new sale transactions falling by more than […]

Manufacturing Around the Worlds Grows Faster Than Expected

January’s Manufacturing ISM Index rose to 58.4, now coming in above 50 for six consecutive months. The this reading was much better than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 55.5 with individual estimates from 53.5 to 58.0. Looking at the ISM’s sub-indices; prices paid rose to 70.0 in January from 61.5 in December; the employment index […]