Global markets may be converging on a new ‘volatile’ norm as investors revalue risk, as governments begin the painful process of deleveraging to more sustainable debt levels. Thus far fears of sovereign defaults have remained contained to the usual suspects—fundamentally weak nations—leading investors to flock to the safe-havens of the U.S., Japan, and Germany. Risk […]
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Japan
The AUD/JPY exchange rate, commonly used as a carry trade to take advantage of stark interest rate differentials between the two countries, is also a measure of investor risk. For that reason it may surprise some of you to learn the cost of the Australian Dollar in terms of the Japanese Yen is tightly correlated […]
Next week the Fed will cease purchasing agency MBS, to an industry outsider this innocuous sounding fact may not garner much attention, but the reality is the implications are likely very significant, and are already making themselves apparent in the market. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan recently referred to last week’s jump in U.S. interest […]
While all eyes remain on Greece, Japan’s fundementals continue to weaken, and in some instances look worse than Greece. There are of course numerous technical and economic differences between the two nations; however, I do not believe Japan’s current deficits and debt load will be sustainable without drastic changes. This is an update from my […]
Japan’s new finance minister has indicated that he would like to see the yen depreciate ‘a bit more’ after falling 9% from it’s recent high. This is in contradiction to Japan’s recently retired finance minister, and likely means further depreciation for the Yen. I first recommended shorting the yen on 28 October in my piece […]
Since China opened the flood gates to foreign investment in the 1990s, the country has significantly outpaced the developed world, especially the US, in terms of economic growth (see Chinese vs. US real GDP growth chart). Consequences of China’s success have included increased urbanization (see population chart) and a burgeoning middle class. Never before in […]
If you enjoyed what I wrote yesterday on Japan and the Yen, you will likely enjoy this intraday update from Zero Hedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/intraday-major-yen-divergence-parallel-derisking-process
-Strong domestic demand for Japanese government bonds has permitted Japan to keep interest rates at or near 0 despite significant increases to the government’s debt burden, with no significant currency depreciation, and almost no economic growth. But, this model may be coming to an end -An aging Japanese population will have several negative effects on […]