It was widely anticipated that Chinese exports would turn positive in December, but very few expected by such a large magnitude–17.7% y/y. A portion of the increment was due to a small base effect from a decline in exports in December of last year. However, on a monthly basis the value of exports still rose […]
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China
Inflation has begun creeping back into the China’s heating economy, and it was only a matter of time before the government’s hand was forced to tighten exceptionally loose polices. In 2010, a dance between inflation, growth, and government policy will guide Chinese equity markets. Coming into the year growth led the dance with policy and […]
I mentioned this morning that major snow storms in China could place additional pressure on domestic Chinese food prices. I have since received several inquiries about which companies could benefit from this developing pricing dynamic pricing, and here is one answer: Let me take you back to this article on RealMoney, I published on October […]
China’s ’50-year’ snow storm could cause more than just delays in the country; the last time the country was hit with a similar storm food inflation spiked. In the past Chinese food prices have had significant influence over the country’s CPI. It is still too early to measure the full and long-term impact of the […]
An excerpt from today’s column on RealMoney… “In tune with the Thanksgiving spirit–eating–I want to discuss a budding topic that’s garnering more attention lately from a growing number of my clients: food, or more specifically, agriculture. There are many ways to tackle this topic, but what I wanted to highlight today is the growing caloric […]
This is a very short global macro overview of today’s markets. I do not recommend any of the trades mentioned in this report, but hope they help reinforce your own view or help you generate some news ideas. Monetary policy around the globe remains easy, providing ample liquidity and room for credit growth. Additionally, fiscal […]
A potential record US harvest could help buoy rates for small to mid-size ship rates. What was a relatively mild and wet spring and summer has created conditions for what is setting up to be one of the nation’s biggest harvests. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is projecting a total corn crop of 12.954bn bushels, […]
Capesize rates have come under considerable pressure over the past week with forward contracts losing roughly 14% of their value over concerns on industry fundamentals. Despite what has already been 5 consecutive days of declines for capesize rates, industry experts believe this week could bring even more downward pressure. According to Lloyd’s List, a leading […]
Updating yesterday’s theme I was able to collect monthly new lending data from China. The chart below shows the relationships between new lending in China and the BDI. A recent decline of new lending in China is a likely factor behind the recent pullback in shipping rates and Chinese equity markets. The decline in Chinese […]
A reader recently brought to my attention the fact that the BDI and the Shanghai Composite Index both appeared to have peaked from interim-term highs at the beginning of August (see chart). After looking more closely at the data I quickly began to realize the significance of this relationship and its implications on shipping. Let […]