Over the past two weeks new uncertainties have begun pouring into the markets, like the deluge of rain currently striking the west coast—I spent part of last week in Los Angeles. However, unlike what’s happening over the west coast, the storms investors faced were mostly avoidable. It all began with legitimate concerns over tightening Chinese […]
Archive:
Chicago PMI
The Chicago PMI’s better than anticipated reading of 60.0 in December from 56.1 a month prior continues to indicate improving business conditions throughout the Chicago area–and a potentially positive forward looking indicator toward December’s ISM. All of the indicator’s components, excluding inventories, have moved above the break-even point of 50. The most noteworthy jump was […]
The last week of 2009 bears some good news for investors, and that is there isn’t much of it. The week ahead could very well be the quietest week of 2009. However, not all is still, there are several quasi-important releases related to housing, consumer confidence, and manufacturing. Data-centric investors will be analyzing the Dallas […]
This week investors face a barrage of data in addition to Chairman Bernanke’s Senate confirmation hearing. On the economic front, Friday’s employment report should steal the show followed closely Tuesday’s manufacturing ISM release. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM reports have indicated expansion over the past three months, and should again in November, albeit at […]
Personal Income showed no change for September after a revised increment +0.1% in August, this was inline with the consensus forecast. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) declined -0.5% in September, versus a revised increment of +1.4% in August. The decline in consumption is the continued aftereffects caused by the expiration of the US government’s ‘Cash for […]
This week’s most important economic data will likely come in the form of third quarter 2009’s advanced estimate of GDP, which should put an end to four consecutive quarters of declines. The U.S. government’s ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program during the quarter should help to boost the personal consumption component of GDP, while inventories declining at […]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index unexpectedly fell back below 50 to 46.1 in September. This was well below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 52.0, and August’s reading of 50.0. I warned in my US week ahead that this indicator had the potential of surprising to the downside due to seasonal effects, but a drop of […]
There’s no doubt this week’s most important release will be Friday’s employment report, which is expected to show a decline in payrolls of -170K with an unemployment rate of 9.8%. This week could prove critical as markets try to regain some traction after several negative surprises last week, including lower than anticipated existing home sales […]
This week brings the onset of a notoriously bad month for returns, and given the week’s vast array of critical data, the ball is sure to start rolling in one direction or another. First let me apologize if this week’s calendar seems somewhat abridged, as I am on vacation, and am writing it amid the […]
We have a rather tumultuous week in terms of economic data, which will focus on the US housing sector, consumer confidence, durable goods, and US GDP. The week kicks off Monday morning with the US Census Bureau reporting June’s new home sales. Recent housing data has been indicative of a bottom for the sector, so […]