This mornings GDP reading of +0.6% will outweigh the positive ADP number and lead to an additional cut of 50bps at today’s meeting. However, if the Fed were to cut by only 25bps we would expect a large sell-off in the US and global EQ markets; leading to in our opinion to another good buying […]
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US
We still believe there are a lot of good values out there on the Global EQ markets. We are anticipating that China will continue to outperform the US, and India may even outperform China. Looking to take advantage of these markets we found the following two ETFs IFN & FXI, for India and China, respectively. […]
As we mentioned in last night’s posting, we thought it would be possible to hear from the Fed before the next FOMC meeting if the US EQ markets looked to be down significantly, and they did… The Fed’s latest move should help reduce the risk of recession, stabilize the market, and prove the 2008 Fed […]
Global equity markets have clearly priced in a US recession. We expect, & the futures market is currently indicating, that the US markets will open tomorrow down around 4%, after the MLK holiday… Has the market overpriced the probability of a US recession? We believe so. Looking back at the last recession in 2001 we […]
*I believe so and this is why… (A quick synopsis)http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/snloansurvey/ Looking at the trend from the past several Senior Loan Officer Surveys, we have seen lending standards for banks and consumers tighten, while demand has receded and spreads of loan rates verse the banks’ cost of funds are rising. We expect when the next wave […]