August’s Retail Sales rose 2.7%, compared to a consensus forecast of +2.0% and a previous reading in July of -0.1%. The ex-autos component of retail sales came in at 1.1%, versus a consensus forecast of +0.4% and a previous reading of -0.6% in July. Therefore, what is typically a bump in sales due to better […]
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Inflation
August import prices rose 2.0%, the primary driver was a 9.8% increment in fuel import prices during the month. It is important to note that despite this large increase on a y/y basis import prices are still down 15.0%, albeit far less than the 19.2% drop in July. Factoring out fuel, import prices would have […]
Productivity was revised up slightly for 2Q09 to +6.6% from +6.4%, while unit labor costs were revised down to -5.9% from -5.8%. Additionally, the ADP employment survey indicated a loss of -298K jobs, compared to -360K last month. This was worse than analyst’s estimates. Nevertheless, the details behind the ADP report, like the rest of […]
Housing starts fell to 0.581 in July compared to 0.587mn. This number was slightly below the market consensus. The 1% drop in starts comes after a 10% increase in July. Single family starts actually rose 1.7%, but this was more than offset by a 13% decline in multi-family starts. Starts fell 16% in the Northeast, […]
July’s CPI and Core CPI rose by +0.0% and +0.1%, respectively. This result was slightly lower than the Bloomberg consensus of +0.1% for the headline number and +0.2% for the core. ON a year over year basis the headline CPI stands at -2.1%, while the core-CPI has gained +1.5% during the same time frame. Lower […]
Productivity rose 6.4% in 2Q09 compared to a consensus forecast of 5.5%. This is the biggest gain since 2003. The drop was due to the amount of hours worked declining faster than output. At the same time, unit labor costs fell -5.8% versus a consensus forecast of -2.8%. In face the of lay-offs and reduced […]
Energy prices are showing absolutely no signs of abating; those peak oil theorists may be on to something (at least in the short-run). We just don’t see oil prices coming down significantly without a considerable reduction in demand; through improved fuel efficiency or a considerable economic slowdown. Now that we have settled that, we want […]
Inflation, we have been talking about, the market has been talking about it, but has the Fed? In short the answer is yes, but it appears the market may not think so. For the first time since its introduction in 1997, the 5-year TIP traded at a negative yield, implying a significant lack of confidence […]
*Sorry for the delay in posting we were experiencing serious computer issues One of the questions on everybodys’ minds is how high would inflation need to go before the Fed would reconsider any further rate cuts. During the recent months’ we have seen increasing down side risks to the US growth forecast, while at the […]