The FT’s Alphaville published an interesting article today highlighting a piece by Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist and strategist David Rosenberg that set out to answer the question; who is buying into the current rally? I think the piece is both timely and informative, and I recommend you give it a read: Just who is buying […]
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Equity Markets
I have received several inquiries regarding the recent divergence between the BDI and my dry bulk shipping index (DBSI), and thought I should touch on the subject. First and foremost I believe that a large portion of the divergence can be explained as a US dollar story. Also, recent weakness has been mostly isolated to […]
For the next part of my highly overdue ‘Potential Market Negatives’ series, I wanted to highlight recently elevated amounts of insider selling. Insider buying peaked at March while the market was at or very close to interim lows, however, since then buying has shifted to net selling (see chart). This could of course be due […]
*Real Time Notes, Updated Frequently Today I am attending the second day of Dahlman Rose & Co’s Global Transportation Conference, and will be speaking with and listening to presentations from several trucking company executives from companies including: Werner Enterprises, Inc. (NASDAQ: WERN), Con-Way, Inc. (NYSE: CNW), Arkansas Best Corporation (NASDAQ: ABFS), Celadon Group Inc. (NASDAQ: […]
*Real Time Notes Updated Frequently BNSF: Thomas Hund, Executive VP & CFO I am currently attending this conference and will be doing some random live updates throughout the day. I am currently listening to a presentation by BNSF’s Thomas N. Hund, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer. He is presently discussing the important of […]
Updating yesterday’s theme I was able to collect monthly new lending data from China. The chart below shows the relationships between new lending in China and the BDI. A recent decline of new lending in China is a likely factor behind the recent pullback in shipping rates and Chinese equity markets. The decline in Chinese […]
A reader recently brought to my attention the fact that the BDI and the Shanghai Composite Index both appeared to have peaked from interim-term highs at the beginning of August (see chart). After looking more closely at the data I quickly began to realize the significance of this relationship and its implications on shipping. Let […]
Andy Xie is a former economist with Morgan Stanley who correctly called the correction in Chinese markets in April 2007. He recently wrote a very interesting article on the current state of China’s markets, which I believe holds merit and significant implications. This is a highly recommended read for anyone interested. Here is his article: […]
For the next part of my ‘Potential Market Negative’ series I wanted to take a look at short interest on the NYSE. This summer’s rally has begun squeezing out a good number of shorts from the market, reducing the short interest on the NYSE to around 14bn shares in July from over 16bn shares in […]
I wanted to do a quick series highlighting and quantifying some concerns facing investors over the coming months. For the first part of this series I wanted to highlight monthly equity performance, as tracked by the S&P500 total return index, from 1993 through today. September has the dubious distinction of being known as the worst […]