Energy prices are showing absolutely no signs of abating; those peak oil theorists may be on to something (at least in the short-run). We just don’t see oil prices coming down significantly without a considerable reduction in demand; through improved fuel efficiency or a considerable economic slowdown. Now that we have settled that, we want […]
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MikeMcD82
The US isn’t alone when it comes to inflationary concerns. Chinese consumer prices continue setting new interim highs, and it is not going unnoticed. February’s CPI number came in at 8.7%y/y vs. 7.1%y/y in January. It is important to keep in mind this reading includes the adverse effects of severe winter weather and the Chinese […]
Inflation, we have been talking about, the market has been talking about it, but has the Fed? In short the answer is yes, but it appears the market may not think so. For the first time since its introduction in 1997, the 5-year TIP traded at a negative yield, implying a significant lack of confidence […]
Last week’s performance was pretty much in-line with our expectations, as outlined in our March 2nd post. But what’s going to happen this week? The beginning of this week is going to be relatively quiet on the data front. However, we will be ending the week with some important consumer related data including CPI, Retail […]
We are continuously being barraged with mixed news concerning the housing crisis. One day we hear signs are pointing towards a bottom; the next housing numbers came in much lower than expectations. So we raise this question: What indicators should we be looking at to truly signal a recovery in housing? With this question in […]
BDI Revisited in new entry written 11/08/2008 Globalization and world trade has become the major growth force in emerging market economies and has significantly influenced developed nations as well. The big question is; how or has the US led slowdown affected this trend. There are of course a series of indicators we can look at […]
This week has some serious downside potential… Lets take a look at some of the more important indicators, and see which direction we think the risk lies verse expectations. Monday:10:00AM: ISM Mfg. Index (Risk: Downside)– Currently, the market expects a reading of 48.1, verse 50.1 from the prior month. We believe given the poor performance […]
I was asked my views on the Chinese inflation situation today and came up with this short piece: The Chinese growth story is now sharing the spotlight with the country’s mounting inflation concerns. In January consumer prices rose 7.1%y/y; to a level not seen since 1996, a point when China was in the midst of […]
*Sorry for the delay in posting we were experiencing serious computer issues One of the questions on everybodys’ minds is how high would inflation need to go before the Fed would reconsider any further rate cuts. During the recent months’ we have seen increasing down side risks to the US growth forecast, while at the […]
This mornings GDP reading of +0.6% will outweigh the positive ADP number and lead to an additional cut of 50bps at today’s meeting. However, if the Fed were to cut by only 25bps we would expect a large sell-off in the US and global EQ markets; leading to in our opinion to another good buying […]