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Posts Tagged ‘Equities’

The QE Trade Road Map From the Bloomberg Brief: Economics

November 3rd, 2010 Michael McDonough Comments off

When the Federal Reserve launched its unprecedented program of quantitative easing in early 2009, it was difficult to predict how various asset classes would react. Now, as the Fed considers a second round of asset purchases, the first program has left a blueprint of sorts behind that could be useful in predicting how markets might respond. The table here shows, as measured by R^2, how strongly the fluctuations in a variety of assets are correlated with the level of securities held by the Fed during the first six months of 2009. The table also displays the performance of these assets during the first half of 2009, as well as in the period since Fed Chairman Benjamin Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech, where he laid out the case for additional quantitative easing.

To subscribe for free go to {BRIEF <GO>} on any Bloomberg terminal or if you don’t have a terminal go here to subscribe for a fee: www.bloomberg.com/brief

**This is an excerpt from the Brief published on 10/29/10**

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US Equities Outperforming The World

May 17th, 2010 Michael McDonough Comments off

As of this morning, not only have US equities (as measured by the MSCI)outpaced their global counterparts, but on a year-to-date basis it’s the only index still showing gains, albeit somewhat modest.  Interestingly, as of this week the spread between the MSCI US and MSCI World index reached its highest spread of the year, mostly due to losses in Latin America and emerging Europe. 

MSCI Indices:

Source: Bloomberg

 

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Is a Falling Greenback Leading to Smooth Sailing for Shippers?

September 18th, 2009 Michael McDonough Comments off

I have received several inquiries regarding the recent divergence between the BDI and my dry bulk shipping index (DBSI), and thought I should touch on the subject.  First and foremost I believe that a large portion of the divergence can be explained as a US dollar story.  Also, recent weakness has been mostly isolated to larger capesize vessels, which means shippers with low or no exposure to that sector have been somewhat buffered.  Prior to the global financial crisis, a weakening dollar helped lead to an unprecedented surge in commodity prices and shipping rates, this had a direct positive impact on shippers’ asset values and rates.  As the crisis hit investors around the globe became more risk averse and flocked into US government debt.  This liquidation of risky assets caused a massive retrenchment in commodity prices and a significant rally in the US$.  Now however, as investors again grow less risk adverse, the value of the greenback has begun to depreciate, and with it we are again seeing a rally in commodity prices and flows back into riskier assets.  However, unlike the prior example we have not seen, and are unlikely to see, any significant appreciation in shipping rates over the near-term, more on this later.  But, speculation over what some believe may be a V-shaped recovery have potentially over-valued some assets that could experience a possible sell-off, leading to a interim increase in risk aversion and an appreciation in the dollar.  Don’t get me wrong, I do believe the overall global economy is improving, however, I feel it will be at a more measured pace with some volatility, and in this context I believe some debt spreads and equity markets could be overvalued.  This is especially true in the shipping sector.

Source: Bloomberg & Capital Link

Source: Bloomberg & Capital Link

The chart below overlays my DBSI with the inverted US$ index, and as you can see the correlation over the last few months has been very significant.  This relationship also explains why the DBSI has largely been ignoring declines in the shipping rates.  At least over near-term, it appears that a bet on the sector essentially equates to a bet against the US$.  As I mentioned yesterday, another reason the temporaneous breakdown in the relationship between shipping rates and the DBSI is shippers’ higher proportions of fixed long-term contracts, reducing the sensitivity to the BDI, however, this also limits upside.  In conclusion, an appreciating greenback will only move shippers’ stocks up so far, without a corresponding increase in shipping rates, which is not on the horizon.  Therefore, with the bleak outlook for shipping rates combined with the potential for what I believe could be another market correction before growth returns on a more measured pace, I would be hesitant to place any long positions on the sector at current values.

Source: Bloomberg & My Calculations

Source: Bloomberg & My Calculations

As an aside:  FBR Capital Markets, this morning published a bearish report on the dry bulk sector due what they believe will be relatively few order book cancellations.  The company said, “After our recent meeting with the largest and most advanced shipbuilder in China, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC), in Beijing, China, we reiterate our Underweight position on the dry bulk industry. CSIC confirmed our thesis that there will be fewer-than-expected order book cancellations.”  My DBSI returned some recent gains yesterday falling -1.1%.  The index is still realizing a weekly return of 9.1%

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A Look at China’s P/E Ratios:

August 24th, 2008 Michael McDonough Comments off

Quite a few readers have been wondering whether the relatively high P/E valuations of China’s equity markets were justified. This is my response: I would say that type of PE valuation is reasonable for most of the Chinese companies. As everyone knows, growth in China has been very robust over the past several years, and should remain strong over the next several, despite a slowdown in the rate of growth. To quickly quantify this argument we can take a look at the Shanghai SE Composite’s 2Q08 aggregate PE and divide that by China’s YoY GDP growth for the same period, and compare the data to against other markets (see chart below).


Select market PE’s to underlying country’s GDP growth
Source: Bloomberg


Looking at the chart above, despite China’s seemingly high PE valuations, in terms of PE to GDP they are actually the cheapest market in the set with a PE/GDP ratio of 2.1. Looking ahead, Chinese growth will continue outpacing its industrialized counterparts over the next several years, and this should help support its market. In fact, during this period we will likely see China’s domestic sector replace the export sector as the main engine of growth. This should partly be catalyzed by higher domestic incomes and growing domestic demand, coupled with a slowdown in consumption by industrialized nations. Of course from my experience, one of the big question marks for China’s market is the impact of any new government policies. However, given the expected weakness in the export sector, recent inflation moderation, and the slowdown of the GDP growth rate, I expect future policy to be accommodative to domestic growth.

Also, I will be traveling for the next couple of weeks, so I may be slow to post new entries. However, I will randomly be checking email.

Thanks!

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A Look at Chinese and Hong Kong ADR’s

July 27th, 2008 Michael McDonough 1 comment
In this piece I highlight 66 Chinese and Hong Kong ADRs by sector, broken out by market cap, average 30 day volume, and a series of performance metrics. This piece will eventually be followed-up with specific analysis on Chinese sectors and companies. Before getting to the nitty gritty lets formulate a quick outlook on the global and Chinese economies.

As everyone by now has realized decoupling of the financial markets holds less credibility than the Loch Ness monster. This notwithstanding, I anticipate growth in developing emerging market economies, especially China, will continue to outpace their industrialized counter parts in the years to come, albeit it not at the pace we have grown accustomed to seeing. It is also very likely we will see domestic demand take over as the new engines of growth in these economies. The cause is simple, industrial nations, particularly the US, will experience slowdowns in consumption, hence overall growth over the next several years as wealth continues to deteriorate. The effect, less demand for foreign goods will likely cause trade balances to become a drag on growth for many EM export oriented economies On the other hand, this should be at least partially off-set by what I expect to be continued strong growth in the domestic sector. Domestic Consumption and investment should remain robust for many EM countries after experiencing high growth and a developing domestic economies.

With that said lets look at China, where the global slow-down coupled with an appreciating currency is a double whammy for exports. But how has the Chinese domestic market performing? In a nutshell the answer is good. According to China’s 2Q08 GDP figures domestic investment and consumption continue to experience significant growth. In fact, the June retail sales figure demonstrated 23%yoy growth. So why have Chinese equities faced such a bad year? Well I don’t believe there is any one specific reason for this, but a combination of factors including fears of monetary tightening, investors’ flight to quality, and liquidity issues in the global financial sector stemming from the housing crisis. I anticipate that as fears ease and liquidity returns to the market we could see a significant buy-back of Chinese equities. Additionally, as the Chinese export sector continues to deteriorate there is a growing possibility we could see a pull-back of domestic macro-policies aimed at preventing the over-heating of the domestic economy. This could include anything from increasing loans quotas to reducing reserve requirements. With this said, in the long-run I am bullish on the Chinese domestic sector, while slightly bearish on export oriented industries. There are of course risks, and I advise you to read some of my previous posts and other research. I will go into further detail on sectors and companies in future posts. Now let’s look at the ADRs:

Year to date the 66 Chinese and Hong Kong ADRs I tracked lost 24.0% of their value in market weighted terms, significantly outperforming the domestic Shanghai SE Composite Index which returned -45.6% during the same period, but underperforming Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index which returned -18.4%. The best performing company was China’s VisionChina Media (VISN) which returned 167.1%ytd, while the worst performer was Hong Kong’s Corgi International (CRGI) which lost 73.0% during the same time period. Interesting to note is that in 2007 nearly 70% of Corgi’s revenues were derived from the US. The best performing GICS sectors for the ADRs were consumer discretionary, health care and IT which all lost 15%ytd in market weighted terms. The worst performing sector has been industrials, which lost 54%ytd. Please look at tables below for further details:

ADR’s sorted by Sector & Market Cap*

*Sector Performance is Market Cap Weighted

Source: Bloomberg

To be continued…


Quick Description from Bloomberg of top 10 ADRs by Market Cap

  1. PetroChina (PTR): PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits markets and sells natural gas.
  2. China Mobile (CHL): China Mobile Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides cellular telecommunications and related services in the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong SAR.
  3. China Petroleum & Chemical (SNP): China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in China. The Company also owns refineries that make petroleum and petrochemical products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. In addition, Sinopec trades petrochemical products.
  4. China Life Insurance Company (LFC): China Life Insurance Co., Limited offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.
  5. CNOONC (CEO): CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas.
  6. China Telecom (CHA): China Telecom Corporation Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides wire line telephone, data, and Internet, as well as leased line services in China.
  7. China Unicom (CHU): China Unicom Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in the People’s Republic of China. The Company’s services include cellular, paging, long distance, data, and Internet services.
  8. Aluminum Corporation of China (ACH): Aluminum Corporation of China Limited is a producer of alumina and primary aluminum in China. The Company refines bauxite into alumina and smelts alumina to produce primary aluminum.
  9. China Netcom (CN): China Netcom Group Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited is a fixed-line telecommunications operator in China and an international data communications operator in the Asia-Pacific region. The Company provides broadband and other Internet-related services, including DSL and LAN services, business and data communications.
  10. Yanzhou Coal Mining (YZC): Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited operates underground mining and coal preparation and operation businesses. Its products are sold in domestic and international markets. The Company also provides railway transportation services.

**Disclaimer: Author holds long positions in China Mobile(CHL) & EHouse (EJ)

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Looking for Alpha through Beta

January 27th, 2008 Michael McDonough Comments off
We still believe there are a lot of good values out there on the Global EQ markets. We are anticipating that China will continue to outperform the US, and India may even outperform China. Looking to take advantage of these markets we found the following two ETFs IFN & FXI, for India and China, respectively. Of course the major risk being here any slight decline in the US market will be exacerbated in these markets do to their high betas. Although at times this can be used for your advantage. Take for example last week when the Indian market dropped something like 15% on Monday and Tuesday, this would imply a substantial loss (probably near 5%) for the SP500. Now when the markets opened IFN dropped from trading at around 55 to 48, to catch up with the Indian markets, but when the 5% loss to the SP500 did not materialize (mostly because of the 75bp cut announced before markets opened) the ETF went back to trading around 54. After the Fed announced the 75bp rate cut (the Fed usually makes these surprise announcements at 8:15 am) the US EQ futures market recovered from what was setting up to be a very negative open(-5%). Since the Indian markets were already closed and had experience a devastating loss over the prior two days the ETF, accordingly, opened significantly lower, but since the loss in the US markets didn’t substantiate the kind of loss seen in India, it quickly recovered. Meaning if this trade were executed you could have seen gains of over 10% within a couple of hours and in our view with limited risk.
As we have said continually we do not believe the US is going to move into a recession, meaning these markets should continue to outperform. We are also looking into the outlook of the Las Vegas Sands (LVS) before their Feb 4th earnings report, we believe the price has been unjustifiably depressed and earnings could surprise to the upside. This is in no way an investment recommendation, but please feel free to look into the data yourself.
*Sorry for the delay in posts we were in the process of relocating to a nicer space.
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