Unusual volatility in the sale of building materials has exaggerated retail sales over the past three months. While this doesn’t change the prevailing trend, sales in both April and March would have appeared far less optimistic than reported. Building material sales climbed 8.0% in both March and April-a pace not seen since March 2004-plummting -9.3% […]
Archive:
June 2010
France is no European angel in terms of its fundamental, yet like Germany the credit has received ‘safe-haven’ status from investors; that is until recently. French 10Y government bonds have traded mostly lockstep with equivalent German debt since the onset of the European debt crisis, but since the beginning of June the spread between the […]
“Dear all: One Chinese official apparently leaks May macro data According to Reuters, a senior Chinese government official leaked some key macro data during an internal investor conference. If confirmed, it will be one of the largest leakages in China in two years. Official numbers are yet to be released. Relevant numbers are for CPI, […]
Keep an eye on these government bond auctions, especially for Spain and Portugal, as a bad auction can provide the catalyst for further risk aversion: June 9th: 09:00 GMT Germany: 2y Schatz Auction €6bn 09:30 GMT Portugal: 3y and 10y auctions €1.5bn 09:30 GMT UK: New 2020 Gilt £3.75bn 17:00 GMT US: 10y Note Auction $21bn June 10th: […]
The aggregated spreads of Europe’s weakest peripheries plus Belgium are on track to test their pre-bailout levels, as investors question whether or not a default will become necessary and what contagion effects it might have. The biggest concern is that a default could lead to a Lehman like effect halting liquidity as banks and investors […]
Nearly 28% of all income received in the U.S. comes in one form or another from the U.S. government. As of April 2010, government wages combined with government transfer payments total 27.8% of total income in the US. Breaking it down further, government wages plus transfers equals nearly 67% of total private sector wages. These […]
Food stamp usage has climbed to new highs in the U.S. with over 40mn subscribers–roughly 15% of the total population–as of this morning’s release for March. The rise in volumes coincided with an explosion in costs for the program to $5.4bn/month from $3.6bn/month at the start of 2009. Surging food stamp use or what is referred […]
A precipitous decline in money supply could be choking the U.S.’s economic recovery, while supporting deflationary fears. While the Fed no longer tracks M3, one of the broadest measures of the U.S. money supply, professional forecasters estimate the index has fallen 9.6% on an annualized basis from February through April; matching what was last seen […]