It was widely anticipated that Chinese exports would turn positive in December, but very few expected by such a large magnitude–17.7% y/y. A portion of the increment was due to a small base effect from a decline in exports in December of last year. However, on a monthly basis the value of exports still rose […]
Archive:
January 2010
As I mentioned was a possibility in my recent piece, How to Play a Tightening Chinese Economy, the Chinese real estate sector should be a primary target for new policies by the Chinese government to prevent what they perceive as a burgeoning bubble. In fact this morning China’s State Council has said, “The People’s Bank […]
With employment out of the way—for now—onto earnings; Alcoa is scheduled to kick of the 4Q09 earnings season with its report on Monday. Earnings might be stealing most of the show this week, but don’t count out economic data with the release of a critically important retail sales release on Thursday and a torrent of […]
Here is an updated table containing my global macro trading strategies for retail investors. **For the details behind my global macro trading hypothesis, please see my past article on this blog and at RealMoney.
Consumer Credit outstanding dived by a record -$17.5bn in November, compared to a revised -$4.2bn decrease in October. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was anticipating a more moderate -$5.0bn decline. Individual estimates ranged from -$10.0 bn to a high of -$2.0bn. Revolving credit credit card balances) fell by -$13.7bn in November compared to a decline of […]
Cantor Fitzgerald raised the price target for Diana Shipping (DSX) to $18 from $16 based on higher rechartering assumptions. Cantors presently holds a ‘Buy’ rating on DSX. DSX is one of the few shippers within the dry bulk space on which I hold a relatively constructive view. Compared to other shippers the company has a […]
December non-farm payrolls fell 85k, compared to a consensus call of no change. November payrolls were revised to +4k from -11k this was the first increase in payrolls since December 2007. December’s unemployment rate remained at 10.0%, in-line with consensus. Hourly earnings in December rose +0.2%, in-line with consensus. Manufacturing payrolls declined -27k, falling for […]
According to Morgan Stanley and NPD, since the release of Windows 7 computer sales have risen by at least 30% y/y every week through December 26th, the most recent data point (see chart from Morgan Stanley). Not only does this bode well for Microsoft (MSFT), but provides another reason to be bullish on Dell (DELL). […]
Japan’s new finance minister has indicated that he would like to see the yen depreciate ‘a bit more’ after falling 9% from it’s recent high. This is in contradiction to Japan’s recently retired finance minister, and likely means further depreciation for the Yen. I first recommended shorting the yen on 28 October in my piece […]
Hearing about GM’s new battery plant I started reminiscing about an article I wrote back in July of 2008. Will this movement in the U.S. have the same impact it had on Japan? We will have to wait and see.