The preliminary November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was reported at 66.0 versus a 70.6 reading in October, and 73.5 in September–well below expectations. As I warned in my economist first look, this index could face some downside risk as survey participants would have been exposed to a worse than anticipated employment report last […]
Archive:
November 2009
September’s trade deficit widened more than anticipated to -US$36.5B from a revised -US$30.8bn in August (originally -US$30.7bn). Exports rose by +2.9% to US$132.0B, while imports were up a more significant +5.8% to US$168.4B–with auto imports rising a substantial US$1.4bn. It is not at all unusual for the trade deficit to widen during the early stages […]
Tomorrow I will be publishing an interesting piece on TheStreet.com’s Real Money section titled “Coal in your stocking: hypocrisy, senility, or common sense?” The piece discusses Mr. Buffett’s recent acquisition of BNSF, and highlights his indirect bet on coal. The piece also highlights some trading ideas in the coal and railroad sectors that you may […]
The MBA’s mortgage application index rose 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis the week prior to November 6. The week’s positive performance was derived entirely from the refinance index, which rose 11.3%, while the purchase index dropped -11.7%–reaching its lowest level since December 2000. A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were […]
Since China opened the flood gates to foreign investment in the 1990s, the country has significantly outpaced the developed world, especially the US, in terms of economic growth (see Chinese vs. US real GDP growth chart). Consequences of China’s success have included increased urbanization (see population chart) and a burgeoning middle class. Never before in […]
The second full week in November brings with it not only a federal holiday on Wednesday, but a relatively quiet week on the data front. The week’s potentially most interesting piece of data—the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey—has no official release date, however, looking back the report is typically published early in the week following […]
The inevitable has occurred; October’s unemployment rate rose to 10.2%–a 26 year high–, while nonfarm payrolls declined by -190,000. The drop in payrolls was more or less in-line with my forecast of -185K, but much worse than the consensus forecast of -175K. It isn’t all bad though, during my first glance at the data I […]
The ISM non-manufacturing employment index fell to 41.1 in September from last month’s 44.3. This should take away any chances for upward revisions to Friday’s payroll release. The standalone business index finished at 55.2 from 55.1 a month prior, while the prices paid Index jumped to 53.0 from 48.8. The headline number came at 50.6, […]
It is unlikely that this morning’s ADP data (-203K), will lead to any substantial payroll revisions, despite what was a stellar ISM employment index. I wanted to note that over the decades, as the US has shifted from a manufacturing to service oriented economy, the significance of the relationship between the manufacturing ISM’s employment index […]
The ISM manufacturing index rose in October to 55.7 from 52.6 in September, which was above expectations. This was the highest reading for the index since April. The prices paid index climbed to 65.0 in October from 63.5 a month prior. The employment index jumped to 53.1 during the month from 46.2 in September. The […]