As expected the Fed announced no changes to the target range for the federal funds rate, which currently stands at between 0% and 0.25%. The market was trading up prior to the announcement on what was generally expected to be a more constructive economic outlook from the Fed. In fact the Fed did seem more […]
Archive:
August 2009
The June trade balance widened to -US$27.0bn compared to -US$26.0bn the previous month, and a consensus forecast of -US$28.6bn. Exports rose +2.0% in the month to US$125.8bn, but were more than offset by an even bigger increase in imports at 2.3% to US$152.8bn. The primary driver behind June’s widening was higher energy related prices. The […]
I came across an article on the WSJ online this morning indicating that interest in the ‘cash for clunkers’ program may be diminishing. According to the article, Edmunds.com reported that interest in the program peaked on July 29th, and has since declined 15%. They went on to say that based on this trend, sales […]
Productivity rose 6.4% in 2Q09 compared to a consensus forecast of 5.5%. This is the biggest gain since 2003. The drop was due to the amount of hours worked declining faster than output. At the same time, unit labor costs fell -5.8% versus a consensus forecast of -2.8%. In face the of lay-offs and reduced […]
On the economics front this week we have a rather light calendar compared to last week, but not without some significant releases. The weeks starts out slow with no noteworthy releases on Monday, followed up by productivity and costs on Tuesday. The week closes with the hard hitting trifecta of July’s CPI, June’s Industrial Production, […]
Consumer credit fell -US$10.3bn in June, with May’s release being revised down to -US$5.4bn. The street consensus was for a drop of -US$5.0bn. This index does not included mortgages or any loans backed by real estate. Looking at the index’s components, revolving credit (credit card balances) dropped -US$5.4bn in June compared to -US$4.9bn in May. […]
I thought I would point out, after my Chinese beer market piece, that Tsingtao today announced a 68% rise in 1H09 profits, backed by a 12.9% increase in volumes. This helps support my argument that Tsingtao is very well positioned to take advantage of significant unrealized potential within the Chinese beer market. Tsingtao’s leading foreign […]
Payrolls in the US fell by -247,000 in July, with the unemployment rate moving to 9.4% from 9.5%. This compares to last month’s revised change of -443K, and a consensus forecast of -300K. This number exceeds both the streets and my own expectations. The drop in the unemployment rate was caused by a reported decrease […]
Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, fell 38K to 550K, compared to a street consensus of 575K. The week prior’s number was revised up to 588K from 584K. This points to continued improvement in the labor market from what. however, is a rather dismal base. Claims at these levels still point toward […]
July’s non-manufacturing ISM came in at 46.4, compared to last month’s reading of 47.0 in June, and a market consensus of 48.2. July’s employment index moved to 41.5 from 43.4. The prices paid index moved to 41.3 from 53.7. Weakness in the employment index coupled with a weaker than anticipated ADP report could place negative […]