Historically, payroll growth rarely exceeds 400K in any given month, even in the best of times, not good news considering the US has lost 8mn jobs since the start of the recession. Some analysts have discussed a best case scenario where payrolls rise by 1mn a month, bringing us back to the pre-recession peak within […]
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payrolls
As tomorrow morning’s employment report approaches I wanted to take a quick look at the relationship between the four week moving average of initial jobless claims and the change in payrolls. As a general rule of thumb significant sustained job growth cannot occur until claims move below 400K. However, in March payrolls grew at 162K, […]
Payrolls moved up by +162K in March, compared to a forecast of +184K. Combined January and February revisions totaled an additional 40K jobs created. March added 48K census workers making the ex-census change in payrolls a modestly strong +136K. It is impossible to determine to what extent weather had on this report, but I expect […]
Non-farm payrolls fell -36K, handily beating the latest consensus forecast of -68K. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%. The market can expect some volatility from government census worker hirings over the months ahead. The effect should be positive for the next couple months, but eventually turn negative as these workers are let go. One […]
What had been an improving trend in initial jobless claims has hit a roadblock with claims rising this morning to by 22K to 496K . Recent volatility can be attributed to everything from weather to a backlog of claims in California, but in the end still points to further deterioration for the monthly employment report. […]
December non-farm payrolls fell 85k, compared to a consensus call of no change. November payrolls were revised to +4k from -11k this was the first increase in payrolls since December 2007. December’s unemployment rate remained at 10.0%, in-line with consensus. Hourly earnings in December rose +0.2%, in-line with consensus. Manufacturing payrolls declined -27k, falling for […]
The December non-manufacturing ISM came in at 50.1 versus 48.7, a month prior. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was 50.5 with estimates ranging from 48.0 to 52.1. The all important employment index finished December at 44.0 versus 41.6 in November. The prices paid index remained well above 50 coming in at 58.7 from 57.8. The standalone […]
The ADP Employment Report indicated a decline of 84K in private sector payrolls in December , compared to a revised drop of 145K a month prior November. This is the lowest level of declines since March 2008. It is unlikely this release will impact Friday’s forecast for no change in non-farm payrolls. Over the past […]
The manufacturing ISM rose to 55.9 from 53.6 in November. Looking at the components the Prices Paid Index rose to 61.5 in December from 55.0, while New Orders jumped to 65.5 from 60.3 in November. But, the big story may be in the Employment Index, which climbed to 52.0 in December from 50.8. This result […]
Payrolls in the US fell by -216K in August compared to a revised decline of -276K in July, and a consensus forecast of -200K. The unemployment rate for the month increased to 9.7% versus 9.4% a month prior, and a consensus forecast of 9.5%. The decline in payrolls continue to moderate, but an increase in […]