China’s plummeting real estate transactions could spell trouble for domestic steel and cement industries. The average number of real estate transaction in China’s 15 largest cities fell 75% on an annual basis according to the most weekly June release according to Goldman Sachs. On a ytd basis transactions have declined -29%. The Chinese government has […]
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Housing
Not since June 2008 has the housing sector been completely devoid of some form of tax incentive to help bolster sales, until now that is and it shows. MBA purchase applications have taken a precipitous drop over the past two weeks falling to levels not seen since the end of 1997. The government’s approach of […]
Now that the extended first time home buyer credit is history, so is whatever impact it once had on home sales. The good news is that data indicates the extended program had only a modest impact, especially compared to the original incentive; this however is also the bad news. A recent, albeit modest, jump in home sales […]
As expected mortgage rates have begun to climb. On March 31st, as planned the Fed terminated its mortgage backed securities (MBS) purchase program after buying $1.25trn of the instruments–keeping mortgage rates artificially low. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the average rate for a 30Y mortgage already climbed to 5.31% the week ending 4/2, compared to […]
Pending home sales, generally considered a good leading indicator for final home sales fell -7.6% in January, supporting recent weakness in both existing and new home sales. This result was well below the consensus forecast calling for a monthly increment of 1.8%. This data reiterates my view that that the housing recovery will face significant headwinds over the […]