Taking a random sampling of 2Q GDP forecasts for Bloomberg we can see the uncertainty facing the release schedule for 7/30. Weaker than expected trade and and inventory data are the primary culprits behind the uncertainty, and I imagine more banks will revise down their forecasts as we move closer to the release. Presently, I believe […]
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GDP
Over the past two weeks new uncertainties have begun pouring into the markets, like the deluge of rain currently striking the west coast—I spent part of last week in Los Angeles. However, unlike what’s happening over the west coast, the storms investors faced were mostly avoidable. It all began with legitimate concerns over tightening Chinese […]
Retailers are not dreaming of a white Christmas. Whether a snowstorm impacting the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend will impact an arguably lackluster holiday shopping season is yet to be seen. But, bad weather does have a tendency of keeping would be shoppers home, however, these shoppers will still have access to online stores, but given […]
As the invisible hand of the market continues wrestling the imprudent hand of governments; consequences will be felt across the globe as one hand hits the table… Government stimulus and monetary policy has undoubtedly led us out of one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression, but what impact will these policies have on […]
The market will be providing a cornucopia of data this week centered on Tuesday and Wednesday, which you can mull over as you begin brining your turkeys—as an aside here’s the recipe I will be following this year. Also, I wrote an interesting column on Friday for Real Money titled ‘Talking Turkey on Agricultural Trends’ […]
The BEA’s advance estimate of 3Q GDP indicates that the economy grew at an for the first time since 2Q08 at annualized 3.5% pace. The most surprising data from the report was a relatively robust increase in personal consumption which grew at 3.4% during the quarter–contributing 2.4% to the quarters 3.5% growth. The primary driven […]
This week’s most important economic data will likely come in the form of third quarter 2009’s advanced estimate of GDP, which should put an end to four consecutive quarters of declines. The U.S. government’s ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program during the quarter should help to boost the personal consumption component of GDP, while inventories declining at […]
There’s no doubt this week’s most important release will be Friday’s employment report, which is expected to show a decline in payrolls of -170K with an unemployment rate of 9.8%. This week could prove critical as markets try to regain some traction after several negative surprises last week, including lower than anticipated existing home sales […]
US 2Q09 GDP remained unchanged from the advance reading of -1.0%, a month earlier. The consensus estimate for the revision was -1.5%. Despite what was no change in the headline number, there were revisions to the data behind it with exports and consumption being revised up, while inventories and non-residential spending were revised down. […]
This week looks to be another whirlwind week of significant economic releases coming from the consumer and housing sectors, along with an update on 2Q09 GDP growth. In addition to this, Monday will see the end of the US government’s highly successful ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program, which over the course of its existence has positively […]