As tomorrow morning’s employment report approaches I wanted to take a quick look at the relationship between the four week moving average of initial jobless claims and the change in payrolls. As a general rule of thumb significant sustained job growth cannot occur until claims move below 400K. However, in March payrolls grew at 162K, […]
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claims
Initial jobless claims rose to 4K this week to 558K, compared to a previous revised reading of 554K and a Bloomberg consensus forecast of 543K. This number has been trending to lower, which indicates a slowing improvement for the US labor market. But, claims still remains far from healthy levels, and still indicates significant deterioration […]