The ADP Employment Report indicated a decline of 84K in private sector payrolls in December , compared to a revised drop of 145K a month prior November. This is the lowest level of declines since March 2008. It is unlikely this release will impact Friday’s forecast for no change in non-farm payrolls. Over the past […]
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ADP
It is unlikely that this morning’s ADP data (-203K), will lead to any substantial payroll revisions, despite what was a stellar ISM employment index. I wanted to note that over the decades, as the US has shifted from a manufacturing to service oriented economy, the significance of the relationship between the manufacturing ISM’s employment index […]
Productivity was revised up slightly for 2Q09 to +6.6% from +6.4%, while unit labor costs were revised down to -5.9% from -5.8%. Additionally, the ADP employment survey indicated a loss of -298K jobs, compared to -360K last month. This was worse than analyst’s estimates. Nevertheless, the details behind the ADP report, like the rest of […]
July’s ADP National Employment Report showed a change in payrolls of -350K, compared to a revised drop of -463K in June. The latest Bloomberg consensus estimate was -350K. The job market continues to improve, despite remaining at dismal levels. Initial market reaction was negative to the report with interest rates trading up and equities futures […]
June’s ADP release came in at -473,000, implying there could be some downward pressure placed on forecasts for tomorrow’s payroll data. Currently, the market is forecasting a -350,000 change in payrolls; I believe we could see this number actually come in around -440,000, which is still much better than the six month average, but below […]
Despite the shortened work week, we have a rather busy schedule of US economic data releases, climaxing with Thursday’s US employment data. Last month’s payroll data caught the market by surprise coming in well above expectations, demonstrating the lowest level of job losses since September 2008. But, the big question remains, was this start of […]