Economists and investors alike are speculating that the Fed could announce a second hike to the discount rate, after increasing its spread over the fed funds target rate to 50bps–compared to its historical level of 100bps. Some investors, despite Fed comments to the contrary, perceived the move as prelude to more significant tightening, be […]
Archive:
US
February’s surprise 0.1% increment in industrial production came despite severe winter weather during the month that was expected to hamper production. Amongst the index’s biggest gainers were computers and information processing equipment, which each rose roughly 1%. As Bloomberg put it these increments ‘signal the pickup in U.S. business investment is being sustained’. However, could […]
Trade, the life blood of the global economy, has begun rebounding nicely since the trough of the global economic crisis. But, January’s US trade data unexpectedly displayed a decline in both exports–the first decline in nine months–and imports, leading to a smaller US trade deficit, but also implying a potential slowdown in global trade. As […]
Here’s the latest state-by-state unemployment data from the BLS. The arrows indicate an increase or decrease in the rate from December 2009 to January 2010. Source: BLS
After a bit of a lull in 2009, M&A activity–a gauge toward GDP growth–has begun to gain some momentum this year. Unsurprisingly, this uptick in M&A activity coincides with gains in business and professional services employment; a series that includes lawyers and bankers. M&A Activity vs. Business and Professional Services Employment The upward trend for […]
Non-farm payrolls fell -36K, handily beating the latest consensus forecast of -68K. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%. The market can expect some volatility from government census worker hirings over the months ahead. The effect should be positive for the next couple months, but eventually turn negative as these workers are let go. One […]
Pending home sales, generally considered a good leading indicator for final home sales fell -7.6% in January, supporting recent weakness in both existing and new home sales. This result was well below the consensus forecast calling for a monthly increment of 1.8%. This data reiterates my view that that the housing recovery will face significant headwinds over the […]
The February’s manufacturing ISM slipped to 56.5, versus a 58.4 a month prior. Disappointing the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast of 58.0. Any level over 50 signifies expansion in the sector. I continue to believe that as inventory restocking begins to slow the ISM manufacturing index will suffer as 2010 progresses. That is without a new […]
The chart below illustrates how existing home sales appear to be pulling back to levels that would have been expected without a surge in demand stemming from the first time home buyer tax credit, despite the programs extension/expansion. This could be an indication that housing demand was mostly sopped up by the original tax credit, […]
Here is an interesting read regarding job losses due to the space shuttle’s retirement: http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100226/NEWS0204/2260321/23-000-now-expected-to-lose-jobs-after-shuttle-retirement The unemployment rate in Florida is already running well above the national average: Source: Bloomberg