Trade, the life blood of the global economy, has begun rebounding nicely since the trough of the global economic crisis. But, January’s US trade data unexpectedly displayed a decline in both exports–the first decline in nine months–and imports, leading to a smaller US trade deficit, but also implying a potential slowdown in global trade. As […]
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July’s business inventories fell -1.0% to US$1.33bn, versus a Bloomberg consensus forecast of -0.9%. On a year over year basis the index has fallen -11.8%. June’s release was revised down to -1.4% from -1.1%. In July the inventory to sales ratio decline to 1.36, and is its lowest level since October 2008. It is widely […]
July’s leading economic indicators index rose 0.6%, experiencing its fourth consecutive month of gains. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was for an increment of +0.7%. Rate spread, claims, and manufacturing hours all made positive contributions, while consumer expectations, M2, and permits were the biggest negative contributors. The LEI tends to be a good forward looking indicator […]
The June trade balance widened to -US$27.0bn compared to -US$26.0bn the previous month, and a consensus forecast of -US$28.6bn. Exports rose +2.0% in the month to US$125.8bn, but were more than offset by an even bigger increase in imports at 2.3% to US$152.8bn. The primary driver behind June’s widening was higher energy related prices. The […]
The index of leading indicators was up in June by 0.7%, or slightly above the market consensus of 0.5%. At the same time May’s number was revised up to 1.3% from 1.2%. This is the third consecutive month of gains for the index. In the release the Conference Board was quoted as saying, “The behavior […]