Taking a random sampling of 2Q GDP forecasts for Bloomberg we can see the uncertainty facing the release schedule for 7/30. Weaker than expected trade and and inventory data are the primary culprits behind the uncertainty, and I imagine more banks will revise down their forecasts as we move closer to the release. Presently, I believe […]
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GDP
An older piece I did on Bloomberg radio discussing the correlation between garbage and GDP. I am more putting it up here, so I don’t lose track of the file… Bloomberg radio 6-11-10
Those looking for evidence of an upcoming double dip recession may have found their canary. The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index is pointing to serious trouble ahead for U.S. economy with the index falling seven consecutive weeks moving into negative territory. According to Laksham Achutan, managing direction of ECRI, “The continuing decline […]
On the surface, a recovery in retail sales is not only a harbinger for stronger economic growth, but could prove to be the missing link for job creation (see chart). Climbing out of the deepest recession since the Great Depression, consumption growth has been surprisingly tepid, at least partially due to companies’ lack of confidence […]
I often analyze the volume of U.S. train car activity released by the Association of American Railroads, hoping to find some magical predictive power over equities, manufacturing, IP, etc…, but what I usually end up with is a mediocre coincident indicator. While in some isolated incidents the index can exert considerable forecasting prowess, volatility and […]
February’s surprise 0.1% increment in industrial production came despite severe winter weather during the month that was expected to hamper production. Amongst the index’s biggest gainers were computers and information processing equipment, which each rose roughly 1%. As Bloomberg put it these increments ‘signal the pickup in U.S. business investment is being sustained’. However, could […]
Trade, the life blood of the global economy, has begun rebounding nicely since the trough of the global economic crisis. But, January’s US trade data unexpectedly displayed a decline in both exports–the first decline in nine months–and imports, leading to a smaller US trade deficit, but also implying a potential slowdown in global trade. As […]
The February’s manufacturing ISM slipped to 56.5, versus a 58.4 a month prior. Disappointing the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast of 58.0. Any level over 50 signifies expansion in the sector. I continue to believe that as inventory restocking begins to slow the ISM manufacturing index will suffer as 2010 progresses. That is without a new […]
This week I am going to keep a close eye on several housing reports, which include January’s new (Wed) and existing (Fri) home sales along with December’s Case Shiller HPI (Tue)–December is the first month after what would have been the expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit. December’s home prices likely came […]
Janurary’s non-manufacturing ISM release rose modestly to 50.5 versus 49.8 in December. This was just below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 51.0. The employment index rose to 44.6 from 43.6, while the prices paid index climbed to 61.2 from 59.6. The new orders index took a bit of a bounce in January moving to 54.7 […]