The MBA’s mortgage application index rose 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis the week prior to November 6. The week’s positive performance was derived entirely from the refinance index, which rose 11.3%, while the purchase index dropped -11.7%–reaching its lowest level since December 2000. A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were […]
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Data Release
The inevitable has occurred; October’s unemployment rate rose to 10.2%–a 26 year high–, while nonfarm payrolls declined by -190,000. The drop in payrolls was more or less in-line with my forecast of -185K, but much worse than the consensus forecast of -175K. It isn’t all bad though, during my first glance at the data I […]
The ISM non-manufacturing employment index fell to 41.1 in September from last month’s 44.3. This should take away any chances for upward revisions to Friday’s payroll release. The standalone business index finished at 55.2 from 55.1 a month prior, while the prices paid Index jumped to 53.0 from 48.8. The headline number came at 50.6, […]
It is unlikely that this morning’s ADP data (-203K), will lead to any substantial payroll revisions, despite what was a stellar ISM employment index. I wanted to note that over the decades, as the US has shifted from a manufacturing to service oriented economy, the significance of the relationship between the manufacturing ISM’s employment index […]
The ISM manufacturing index rose in October to 55.7 from 52.6 in September, which was above expectations. This was the highest reading for the index since April. The prices paid index climbed to 65.0 in October from 63.5 a month prior. The employment index jumped to 53.1 during the month from 46.2 in September. The […]
Personal Income showed no change for September after a revised increment +0.1% in August, this was inline with the consensus forecast. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) declined -0.5% in September, versus a revised increment of +1.4% in August. The decline in consumption is the continued aftereffects caused by the expiration of the US government’s ‘Cash for […]
The BEA’s advance estimate of 3Q GDP indicates that the economy grew at an for the first time since 2Q08 at annualized 3.5% pace. The most surprising data from the report was a relatively robust increase in personal consumption which grew at 3.4% during the quarter–contributing 2.4% to the quarters 3.5% growth. The primary driven […]
September’s new home sales came in at a disappointing seasonally adjusted annual rate of 402K units, compared to a revised pace of 417K a month prior. In September the supply of new homes remained stable at 7.5 months. The median new home price increased by 2.5% to $204,800. The reason for the decline can likely […]
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 47.7 in October from a revised figure of 53.4. This was well below the consensus forecast of 53.1, and the lwoest reading in four months. The October Present Situation index came in at 20.7 compared to 23.0 in September, while the October Expectations index finished at 65.7 […]
September Housing Starts finished the month at an annual rate of 590K (+0.5%). At the same time, August Housing Starts were revised down to 587K versus its original release of 598K. Housing permits declined by -1.2%, to 573K. Unlike starts, August permits experienced a modest upward revision to 580K from 579K. Single-family starts rose +3.9%, […]