If you enjoyed what I wrote yesterday on Japan and the Yen, you will likely enjoy this intraday update from Zero Hedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/intraday-major-yen-divergence-parallel-derisking-process
Archive:
Asia/China
-Strong domestic demand for Japanese government bonds has permitted Japan to keep interest rates at or near 0 despite significant increases to the government’s debt burden, with no significant currency depreciation, and almost no economic growth. But, this model may be coming to an end -An aging Japanese population will have several negative effects on […]
This is a very short global macro overview of today’s markets. I do not recommend any of the trades mentioned in this report, but hope they help reinforce your own view or help you generate some news ideas. Monetary policy around the globe remains easy, providing ample liquidity and room for credit growth. Additionally, fiscal […]
The Japanese Yen reached an eight month high yesterday against the USD (see chart), which led Japan’s finance minister, Hirohisa Fujii, to deny to Bloomberg that he is supporting a stronger Yen. Nevertheless, it is my belief that the Yen may be overvalued and could experience a correction over the near-term. Supporting this view is […]
I have received several inquiries regarding the recent divergence between the BDI and my dry bulk shipping index (DBSI), and thought I should touch on the subject. First and foremost I believe that a large portion of the divergence can be explained as a US dollar story. Also, recent weakness has been mostly isolated to […]
A potential record US harvest could help buoy rates for small to mid-size ship rates. What was a relatively mild and wet spring and summer has created conditions for what is setting up to be one of the nation’s biggest harvests. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is projecting a total corn crop of 12.954bn bushels, […]
Updating yesterday’s theme I was able to collect monthly new lending data from China. The chart below shows the relationships between new lending in China and the BDI. A recent decline of new lending in China is a likely factor behind the recent pullback in shipping rates and Chinese equity markets. The decline in Chinese […]
A reader recently brought to my attention the fact that the BDI and the Shanghai Composite Index both appeared to have peaked from interim-term highs at the beginning of August (see chart). After looking more closely at the data I quickly began to realize the significance of this relationship and its implications on shipping. Let […]
Andy Xie is a former economist with Morgan Stanley who correctly called the correction in Chinese markets in April 2007. He recently wrote a very interesting article on the current state of China’s markets, which I believe holds merit and significant implications. This is a highly recommended read for anyone interested. Here is his article: […]
I thought I would point out, after my Chinese beer market piece, that Tsingtao today announced a 68% rise in 1H09 profits, backed by a 12.9% increase in volumes. This helps support my argument that Tsingtao is very well positioned to take advantage of significant unrealized potential within the Chinese beer market. Tsingtao’s leading foreign […]